NFL MVP Race After Week 16: Stafford Holds Firm, Maye Surges, Allen Slides
Week 16 brought some clarity-and a little chaos-to the NFL MVP race. With just two weeks left in the regular season, the top contenders are separating themselves with big-time performances, while others are slipping at the wrong moment. Let’s break down where things stand after a weekend that saw clutch comebacks, statistical fireworks, and a few hard hits that may shake up the final stretch.
Matthew Stafford Still in Control
Let’s start at the top. Matthew Stafford didn’t get the win on Thursday night, but he made one thing clear: he’s still playing quarterback at an elite level.
The Rams lost a 38-37 thriller in overtime to the Seahawks, but Stafford’s performance was nothing short of spectacular. He threw for 457 yards and three touchdowns, including a go-ahead score to Puka Nacua in overtime.
That came on the road, against one of the league’s stingiest defenses.
Even in defeat, Stafford looked like the best quarterback on the field-and maybe in the league. The Rams may be headed for a wild card spot, but Stafford is leading a team that nobody wants to see in January. His case for MVP remains strong, and for now, he stays at the top of the rankings.
Drake Maye’s Moment in Prime Time
Drake Maye continues to prove that the moment is never too big for him. On Sunday night, he bounced back from an early red-zone interception to lead two fourth-quarter touchdown drives, erasing an 11-point deficit and lifting the Patriots to a 28-24 win over the Ravens.
Maye’s ability to shake off mistakes and take over in crunch time is becoming a theme. His poise, touch, and feel for the pocket are rare for any quarterback-let alone a second-year player.
The Patriots are still clinging to the top spot in the AFC East, and Maye is a huge reason why. He’s engineered one of the most impressive season turnarounds in the league, and with two games left, he’s firmly in the thick of the MVP conversation.
Justin Herbert: Statement Game in L.A.
Justin Herbert picked a great time to put together his best game of the season. Against a tough Cowboys defense, Herbert was surgical, completing 23 of 29 passes for 300 yards and two touchdowns.
He also added 42 rushing yards and a score on the ground. The result?
A 34-17 win that pushed the Chargers to 11-4 and kept them within striking distance of the Broncos in the AFC West.
Herbert led the league in EPA per dropback in Week 16 with a staggering +0.72-an elite number that reflects just how efficient and explosive the Chargers’ offense was. The eye test matched the numbers, and the Chargers now have a clear path: beat the Texans in Week 17, and they get a shot at the division crown in Week 18. Herbert’s MVP stock is rising fast.
Josh Allen Stumbles, But Bills Survive
Josh Allen has had his share of highs this season, but Week 16 wasn’t one of them. Battling through injuries, Allen turned in a quiet performance against the Browns, completing just 12 of 19 passes for 130 yards. His EPA per dropback (-0.45) was the second-lowest among all qualified quarterbacks in Week 16.
Still, the Bills managed to pull out a 23-20 win, keeping their playoff hopes alive. But in the MVP race, Allen’s rough outing knocks him down a peg.
He’ll have one last big-stage opportunity in Week 17 when the Bills face the Eagles. If he wants to get back into the thick of the MVP race, he’ll need a signature performance-and some help from the Patriots’ opponents in the AFC East.
Jordan Love’s Setback
Jordan Love’s breakout campaign hit a bump in Week 16, as the Packers quarterback left Saturday night’s game against the Bears with a concussion in the first half. Malik Willis filled in admirably, but the Packers couldn’t overcome the Bears, who continue to look like one of the league’s toughest outs.
With Green Bay now on the brink of elimination in the NFC North race-and Love’s status uncertain for Week 17 against the Ravens-his MVP candidacy takes a hit. The production drop, combined with the injury and the team’s slipping playoff hopes, makes it tough for him to stay in the top tier of the race.
Honorable Mentions
- Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars QB - Still putting up strong numbers, but Jacksonville’s recent inconsistency keeps him on the outside looking in.
- Myles Garrett, Browns EDGE - A defensive force every week, Garrett continues to wreak havoc, even if MVP voters rarely reward non-quarterbacks.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks WR - The rookie wideout is surging late in the year and made some key plays in the Seahawks’ overtime win. His impact is growing by the week.
Looking Ahead
With two weeks left, the MVP race is far from settled. Stafford remains the frontrunner, but Maye and Herbert are charging hard.
Allen has a chance to rebound, and Love’s status will be one to monitor. Every snap matters now-for playoff hopes, seeding, and the league’s most prestigious individual award.
The stretch run is here. Buckle up.