Dawson Knox Is Forcing the Bills to Rethink His Future - Again
When the Bills drafted Dalton Kincaid in the first round back in 2023, it felt like the writing was on the wall for Dawson Knox. A big contract and declining production?
That’s usually a recipe for a quiet exit in today’s NFL. But here we are in December 2025, and Knox is doing what he’s done his whole career in Buffalo - proving he still belongs.
Let’s talk dollars for a second. Knox’s contract eats up 5.22% of the Bills’ salary cap this season, second only to Josh Allen’s well-earned 13% chunk. And with a $17 million cap hit looming in 2026, the financial logic seemed simple: move on, save $12 million post-June 1, and let Kincaid take over the TE1 role full-time.
But Knox is making that decision a lot more complicated.
A Big Week, On and Off the Field
Last week was one to remember for Knox. Not only did he welcome a new baby into the world, but he followed it up with a vintage performance against New England - two touchdowns and a key role in a comeback win.
That performance pushed him past Pete Metzelaars to become the franchise’s all-time leader in touchdowns by a tight end with 26. Not bad for a guy who’s supposedly on the way out.
“Yeah, he's super steady,” head coach Sean McDermott said. “It was a pretty special week for him and his family.
He’s a leader for us and a big piece of our offense. And then his rapport with Josh [Allen] is important.”
That chemistry with Allen is real - and it’s showing up more and more as the season wears on.
Knox Steps Up as Kincaid Battles Injuries
With Kincaid struggling to stay on the field - oblique, hamstring, and knee injuries have all taken their toll - Knox has stepped back into the TE1 role he held from 2019 to 2022. And he’s looked comfortable doing it.
Josh Allen certainly notices.
“He continues to find himself in good situations, he’s been making plays,” Allen said. “Maybe not a whole lot of hay coming his way earlier in the year, but he’s never once complained.
He’s worked his butt off, blocked his tail off in the run game, and now he’s getting opportunities - and making the most of them. I love the guy.”
This isn’t just a feel-good story about a veteran stepping up. It’s also about fit and function.
Knox has always been a more complete tight end. He’s a reliable blocker, which matters a lot in a Buffalo offense that’s leaned more and more on James Cook and the run game.
Kincaid? He’s a dynamic pass catcher - no question - but his blocking still leaves something to be desired.
That’s why, even when both have been healthy, Knox has out-snapped Kincaid in nine of 10 games this season. In the last two weeks alone, Knox has logged 33 more snaps.
The Numbers Tell the Story
Let’s dig into the usage. The Bills have run 887 offensive plays this season using 332 different lineup combinations. On 170 of those plays, Knox and rookie Jackson Hawes were on the field together - with Kincaid either sidelined or watching from the sideline.
That’s not by accident.
Hawes is the best blocker of the trio, and when the Bills go heavy, it’s usually Knox and Hawes who get the call. But Knox is also making his presence felt in the passing game again.
His 28 catches this year already top his totals from 2023 and 2024. He’s also matched his touchdown output from those two seasons combined - with three scores, including that two-touchdown game in Foxborough.
That’s the kind of production the Bills were hoping to get from Kincaid. And when Kincaid is healthy, he’s been effective - his 66.7% receiving success rate is second on the team, trailing only Hawes (though Hawes has a much smaller sample size).
Offensive coordinator Joe Brady knows what Kincaid can bring when he’s right.
“We’re obviously a better football team when he’s out on the field,” Brady said. “But some of it depends on matchups and game flow. Anytime he’s only playing 25 snaps, I’d love for that to be 45 or 50.”
Still, with Knox playing the way he is, the Bills can afford to be cautious with Kincaid - especially with the playoffs looming.
A Veteran’s Resurgence at the Right Time
“If you do the right things, good things are going to come your way,” Brady said of Knox, whose 62.5% success rate ranks fourth on the team. “He’s done everything right this year and had an outstanding game.”
And it’s not just coaches noticing. Teammates are taking note, too.
“That’s what having a baby girl will do to you,” joked wide receiver Khalil Shakir. “Honestly, Dawson is a great dude. He’s a hard worker, and I look up to him and everything he does, both on and off the field.”
What Comes Next?
So, what does all this mean for Knox’s future in Buffalo? That $17 million cap hit in 2026 still looms large. But instead of being a candidate for a clean break, Knox may have played his way into a contract restructure or even an extension - one that keeps him in Buffalo while easing the financial burden.
He’s doing what good veterans do: staying ready, stepping up when called upon, and leading by example. The Bills may have drafted his replacement two years ago, but Dawson Knox is reminding everyone that he’s not done yet.
And with the postseason around the corner, the timing couldn’t be better.