The Buffalo Bills have already locked in Dalton Kincaid’s fifth-year option for 2027, but the conversation around his next contract is starting to heat up anyway.
That’s what happens when a player gets into the fourth year of his rookie deal, starts stacking production, and fits the kind of extension timeline Brandon Beane has shown a willingness to follow. With no Bills game on Sunday in Week 2, the focus shifts forward - way forward - to what Kincaid’s second contract could eventually look like.
The starting point has to be the tight end market at the top. Right now, George Kittle leads the position with a four-year, $76.4 million deal worth $19.1 million per year and $33 million guaranteed at signing.
Trey McBride sits just behind him at four years, $76 million, $19 million annually, and $32.5 million guaranteed at signing. Tucker Kraft is right there too at four years, $75 million, $18.75 million per year, and $26.5 million guaranteed at signing.
Kyle Pitts is technically fourth in APY at $17.67 million, but his deal actually carries the most money guaranteed at signing among the group at $36 million. That matters, because guaranteed money at signing is often the real key in these negotiations.
Age also has to be part of the equation. Pitts is almost exactly one year younger than Kincaid.
Kraft entered the league in the same draft class as Kincaid but is also a year younger, while McBride is a month younger than the Bills tight end. Kittle, of course, is much older, which makes his contract less relevant in a Kincaid projection.
If you line the group up by production, Kincaid’s case gets interesting fast. Here’s how the group stacks up without Kittle:
Trey McBride: 67 games, 1.80 career yards per route run, 1 regular-season game missed due to injury, 356 career catches.
Tucker Kraft: 43 games, 1.67 career yards per route run, 9 regular-season games missed due to injury, 116 career catches.
Kyle Pitts: 79 games, 1.63 career yards per route run, 8 regular-season games missed due to injury, 284 career catches.
Dalton Kincaid: 43 games, 1.91 career yards per route run, 10 regular-season games missed due to injury, 168 career catches.
Kincaid’s efficiency jumps off the page. In a small-sample 2025 season, he led all tight ends in yards per route run, and he’s carried that momentum into a fast start in 2026. That’s why any extension projection has to begin near the top of the market.
The issue is durability. Buffalo would have loved to get ahead of Kraft’s deal, but Green Bay moved aggressively and gave him the extension anyway, even with a torn ACL in 2025. Kincaid’s longer injury history almost certainly helps explain why he hasn’t been extended yet.
There is at least one useful comparison inside the Bills’ own building. Greg Rousseau signed his second contract after his fourth season, and that gives Buffalo a clear timing precedent if it wants to do the same with Kincaid.
The Bills don’t usually hand out in-season extensions, and that’s where this gets murky. Internally, they may already know Kincaid is in much better shape than he has been over the last two seasons. If that’s the case, the expectation would be a big year - the kind of 1,000-yard season that would make the timing feel right for both sides.
If Buffalo does extend him, the shape of the deal could look a lot like Kraft’s contract. That would make sense for a player who entered the league a little older - Kincaid turned 24 in October of his rookie year - but is still very much in his prime.
The projection here is a little lighter on guaranteed money at signing than the very top of the market, mainly because Beane has typically gotten his extensions done below that line. Still, this would not be a cheap contract. The Bills and Kincaid don’t seem headed toward a hold out/hold in situation, and James Cook’s brief hold in last summer ended with a team-friendly deal, but negotiations can change the temperature quickly.
Even if Buffalo manages to keep the APY under $18 million and the guaranteed-at-signing figure around $32 million, this would still be a major investment.
And for the Bills, it would also mark a long-awaited move: paying a homegrown receiving weapon for Josh Allen like one of the premier tight ends in football.
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