The Buffalo Bills are 3-1, sitting on top of the AFC East, and at first glance that looks like the kind of start that should have the rest of the league paying attention. But the numbers, the opponents and the way these games have unfolded tell a much messier story.
Buffalo’s wins have come against teams with a combined 2-10 record, and even in those matchups the Bills haven’t exactly cruised. They’ve played close games, made plenty of mistakes and, at times, looked far less sharp than a 3-1 team should.
Turnovers have dogged Josh Allen and the offense, while the pass defense has slipped into the bottom five in the league. Three times in four games, Buffalo has allowed 29 or more points.
There have been enough missed chances to make the record feel a little hollow.
That becomes even clearer when you walk through the schedule.
In Week 1, Buffalo beat the Texans 36-31, but Houston - now 0-4 - was better in several key areas. The Bills were beaten in first downs, third-down efficiency, fourth-down efficiency, red-zone success, time of possession and rushing yards. Buffalo won, but not in the kind of convincing fashion you’d expect against one of the league’s weakest teams.
Week 2 brought a 41-31 win over the Lions, and that one was more comfortable. It also gave Allen his sixth career five-touchdown game and Buffalo its first win in its new stadium.
Still, even with the offense rolling, the Bills gave up 31 points again. For a team with this much buzz, that’s hard to ignore.
Then came Week 3, and the Chargers nearly handed Buffalo a gift-wrapped escape. The Bills won 24-16, but they committed five turnovers - three lost fumbles and two interceptions - and Allen didn’t throw a touchdown pass.
Playing at home didn’t stop the sloppiness. Allen did run for two scores, and Buffalo’s defense intercepted Justin Herbert, but the game was the kind of performance that would have been a loss against a more competent opponent.
The latest warning sign came in Week 4, when the Patriots walked into Buffalo and left with a 29-26 win. New England entered the game battered and widely criticized, with Drake Maye struggling so badly that people were calling him “Fake Maye.” None of that mattered once the game started.
Maye finished with 269 passing yards, three touchdowns, one interception and one fumble. Allen posted 253 passing yards, one touchdown through the air, one on the ground and one interception. The Patriots quarterback was better with his legs too, rushing for 54 yards on eight carries while Allen managed four yards on five carries.
Buffalo didn’t have to deal with Pro Bowl cornerback Christian Gonzalez, who was out injured, and defensive tackle Christian Barmore was also sidelined. Even so, New England’s defense held up. And when it mattered most, Maye delivered the biggest throw of the game, hitting Efton Chism for a touchdown after an eight-play, 73-yard drive to put the Patriots ahead 29-26 with just under two minutes left.
Allen still had a chance to answer, but his interception with 1:14 remaining all but finished the job for Buffalo. One play doesn’t decide everything, but it was the kind of mistake the Bills could not afford, especially against a depleted defense.
What makes the loss sting even more is what New England had done before Sunday. The Patriots had scored just 29 combined offensive points through their first three games, and they matched that total against Buffalo.
So yes, the Bills are 3-1, and yes, they’ll still be in the playoff conversation. But the unbeaten glow is gone, and the schedule has done them a few favors. If Buffalo is going to turn this into the kind of season people expected, it can’t keep leaning on close calls against bad teams.
Next up is a trip to L.A. to face the Rams, who just barely got past a shaky Eagles team in Week 4. The season is young, but Allen and the Bills have a lot to clean up if they want this run to mean something more than a promising record.
In Other News...
Bills Fans Will Feel Mitch Morses Heartbreaking Family News
Mitch Morse shared heartbreaking family news this week, announcing the death of his younger brother Robbie, who passed away last week at 30. Robbie had lived with lifelong disabilities after suffering severe brain trauma as an infant, and the Morse family had long been open about his story, turning their private struggle into something many football fans came to know over the years.
The loss is one that will resonate in Buffalo, where Morse spent part of his career and built a strong connection with the fan base. Condolences poured in from across the NFL, including from former teammates and multiple teams, a reminder of how widely Robbies story was felt beyond one locker room. [Read more 🡒]
Bills Suddenly Have A Problem They May Need To Trade For
The Bills 29-26 loss to the Patriots did more than dent the standings. It also pushed a familiar concern back into the spotlight: a secondary that is being asked to hold up while the defense adjusts to Jim Leonhards system, all while injuries keep stripping away experienced options. Buffalo has had to lean on less seasoned defensive backs, and the results have made the back end look like a spot that could use help sooner rather than later.
With the trade deadline still on the horizon in 2026, the question is whether Buffalo waits for its current group to stabilize or starts looking outside the building for reinforcements. The need is obvious enough after a night like this, but the challenge is finding a move that actually fits both the Bills defense and the urgency created by a thin, banged-up secondary. [Read more 🡒]
Bills Face A Risky Tyreek Hill Decision With AFC Stakes
Tyreek Hill is expected to land with an NFL team soon after working his way back from a season-ending injury and being released by the Dolphins, and the Bills are one of the clubs that could wind up in the mix. NFL insider Albert Breer pointed to Buffalo and Kansas City as the two most obvious fits, which makes sense given how both early AFC contenders could use help at wide receiver and have enough ambition to think beyond simple depth.
For Buffalo, the appeal is obvious and the risk is just as clear. Hill would give the offense another dangerous weapon, but the Bills would also be weighing his recovery and age against the possibility that the Chiefs could get there first. In a conference where every edge matters, the decision is less about whether Hill can help and more about how much a contender wants to bet on what he still has left. [Read more 🡒]