The AFC East is heating up, and Sunday’s matchup between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills is about as high-stakes as it gets in December. The Patriots sit at 11-2, leading the division, while the Bills trail at 9-4.
A New England win clinches the AFC East crown. A Buffalo victory?
That keeps the door open for a sixth straight title in Orchard Park - and adds a whole lot of drama to the final weeks of the regular season.
These two teams already clashed once this year, a 23-20 Patriots win back in October that gave New England the all-important tiebreaker. That game flipped the early-season standings and helped set the tone for what’s become a two-team race.
If Buffalo wants to stay in the hunt, Sunday is a must-win. And to do that, they’ll need to lock in on five key Patriots who could tilt the game.
1. QB Drake Maye: The Engine of New England’s Offense
Drake Maye has grown up fast. The second-year quarterback didn’t light up the stat sheet in the first meeting - no touchdown passes, four sacks - but he played clean, efficient football and made big plays when it mattered.
His 22-of-30, 272-yard performance was a masterclass in poise, especially under pressure. He extended plays with his legs, kept his eyes downfield, and never gave Buffalo a chance to capitalize on mistakes.
This time around, the Bills are throwing a slightly different defensive look at him. Shaq Thompson is stepping in at linebacker, Jordan Poyer is back at safety, and Maxwell Hairston is rotating in at corner. That trio brings more speed and experience, but the challenge remains the same: keep Maye inside the pocket and off-schedule.
Buffalo’s best shot? Confuse him pre-snap.
Maye’s shown he can pick apart static coverages, so giving him exotic looks, disguising blitzes, and forcing him to hesitate could lead to takeaways. And when he does escape the pocket - especially rolling to his right - the Bills need a plan to contain him.
Think of how teams defend Josh Allen. That’s the blueprint.
2. RB TreVeyon Henderson: The Explosive X-Factor
Early in the season, TreVeyon Henderson’s role in the offense was a bit of a mystery. That’s no longer the case.
Over the past six games, he’s racked up 472 rushing yards, added 100 through the air, and found the end zone five times. His 5.6 yards per touch say it all - this is a back who can flip the field in a blink.
Buffalo’s run defense, though, has been stout lately. They’ve allowed just 120 rushing yards combined in their last two games, and with Shaq Thompson stepping in at linebacker, they’ve looked even more disciplined in gap fits and pursuit angles.
The key for Buffalo will be winning early downs. If they can bottle up Henderson and force New England into second- or third-and-long, they can unleash their pass rush and get after Maye.
But if Henderson gets rolling, it opens up play-action and keeps the Bills’ defense guessing. This matchup in the trenches could be the game’s turning point.
3. WR Stefon Diggs: The Familiar Foe with a Point to Prove
Stefon Diggs may wear a different jersey now, but Bills fans haven’t forgotten what he can do - and neither has Buffalo’s secondary. In the first matchup, Diggs went off: 10 catches, 146 yards, and enough trash talk and celebrations to fill a highlight reel. He fed off the energy, and he made Buffalo pay.
Expect the Patriots to keep Diggs in the slot, especially if Christian Benford is healthy and able to lock down the outside. That puts the onus on nickel defenders like Taron Johnson and Cam Lewis, with help from Jordan Hancock. It’s a tall order.
The Bills might need to get physical with Diggs. Not in a 1990s, Super Bowl XXV kind of way - the league doesn’t allow that anymore - but they can still send a message.
Safeties crashing down, linebackers lurking underneath, and making every catch over the middle come at a cost. If they let Diggs get comfortable, he’ll take over again.
Bracketing him is tough from the slot, but match-zone concepts could help keep eyes on both Maye and Diggs. The Bills need to be smart, aggressive, and ready for a fight every time No. 8 lines up.
4. [Starting Left Tackle]: A Potential Weak Link Up Front
The Patriots are banged up at left tackle, and that could be a major problem. Rookie Will Campbell is out with a knee injury, and backup Verdarian Lowe has been limited in practice. That opens the door for Thayer Munford Jr. to potentially start - and for Buffalo’s pass rush to feast.
If the Patriots are down to their third option at such a critical position, the Bills need to take advantage. Dialing up pressure off the left edge, using simulated pressures, and throwing in some creative stunts and twists could create havoc for New England’s protection plan.
Of course, the Patriots will try to cover up the issue. Expect chips from tight ends or backs, and a lot of movement to Maye’s right. But if Buffalo can collapse that edge and force Maye into uncomfortable situations, they can disrupt the entire rhythm of the Patriots’ offense.
5. CB Marcus Jones: Underrated, but Not to Be Overlooked
Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis may get the headlines, but Marcus Jones is quietly becoming a key piece in New England’s secondary. Known more for his electric punt returns - and rightfully so, with a 14.6-yard average that’s tops all-time - Jones has also emerged as a legitimate nickel corner.
He made one of the biggest plays in the first meeting, jumping a Josh Allen pass in the red zone to shut down a scoring drive. He’s got three interceptions and 11 pass breakups on the year, and he’s not just a special teams threat anymore.
That said, Jones does have a weakness: size. At 5'8", he’s given up six touchdowns this season, and the red zone is where that shows up most. If Buffalo can isolate one of their tight ends - Dalton Kincaid or Dawson Knox - on Jones, that’s a mismatch they have to exploit.
But don’t get too comfortable. Jones is fast - faster than any of Buffalo’s wideouts - and if he’s roaming in zone coverage, he can still flip a game. The Bills need to be calculated with their matchups and stay away from letting Jones bait them into mistakes.
Final Thoughts
This game is more than just a battle for the AFC East - it’s a litmus test for both teams. Can the Patriots close out the division with authority? Can the Bills rise to the moment and keep their hopes alive?
To win, Buffalo needs a complete performance. That means containing Maye, shutting down Henderson, frustrating Diggs, attacking a vulnerable offensive line, and staying alert for game-changing plays from Marcus Jones.
The margin for error is razor-thin. But if the Bills can execute, they’ll not only delay New England’s celebration - they’ll put themselves right back in the thick of the playoff picture.