The AFC playoff race is heating up, and while the landscape around them has shifted dramatically, the Buffalo Bills remain right where they were a week ago - clinging to the No. 7 seed. That road win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 13?
It was more than just a victory - it was a lifeline. Without it, the Bills would’ve dropped to No. 9 and found themselves on the outside looking in.
Let’s be clear: the margin for error is razor-thin. But the Bills are still standing, still in control of their playoff destiny, and - believe it or not - still in the hunt for the AFC East crown.
The AFC East: Still a Two-Team Race
Week 13 was kind to the entire AFC East. Every team in the division picked up a win, including the first-place New England Patriots, who improved to 11-2 with a Monday night victory over the New York Giants. That win pushed their lead over Buffalo to 2.5 games, and with just five weeks to go, the math is getting tight.
But here’s the thing - the division isn’t locked up just yet. The Bills still have a path to the AFC East title.
It’s narrow, sure, but it’s there. And it all runs through Foxborough.
What Buffalo Needs to Do
Circle December 14 on your calendar. That’s when the Bills head to Gillette Stadium for a showdown with the Patriots.
If Buffalo wants to keep its AFC East title hopes alive, it has to win that game. No ifs, ands, or buts.
Even with a win in Foxborough, Buffalo would still need help - specifically, one more New England loss somewhere down the stretch. But if the Patriots take care of business in Week 15 and complete the season sweep of the Bills, it’s over. New England clinches the division, and Buffalo’s five-year reign atop the AFC East comes to an end.
What New England Needs
The Patriots are in a strong position. They’re on a bye in Week 14, which means they can’t clinch the division just yet. But come Week 15, they’ll have a golden opportunity to lock it up.
A win over Buffalo would give New England the AFC East title and a season sweep over their closest challenger. That head-to-head advantage would serve as the ultimate tiebreaker, even if both teams finished 12-5.
So yes, Week 15 is shaping up to be a de facto division championship game.
Tiebreaker Tracker: Where the Bills Stand
Right now, the Patriots hold the edge in the season series after a 23-20 win over Buffalo back on October 5. That’s the first box checked in the tiebreaker formula.
Next up is division record. New England is 3-0 against AFC East opponents.
Buffalo? 2-2.
The Patriots still have one game left against each division rival, while the Bills have New England and the Jets left on the schedule. If this race comes down to tiebreakers, Buffalo’s got some work to do.
Playoff Picture: Bills Still in Control
Despite the uphill climb for the division, Buffalo’s postseason odds are in solid shape. According to NFL.com, the Bills have a 91% chance of making the playoffs.
And per the New York Times’ Playoff Simulator, just one more win would push that number to at least 95%. Two wins?
That jumps to 98% or better in every scenario.
So while nothing’s clinched yet - not for Buffalo, not for anyone - the Bills are in a strong position to secure a wild-card berth if they keep stacking wins.
Where Things Stand: AFC Playoff Race Entering Week 14
Here’s how the AFC playoff picture looks right now:
- New England Patriots (11-2)
- Denver Broncos (10-2)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4)
- Baltimore Ravens (6-6)
- Los Angeles Chargers (8-4)
- Indianapolis Colts (8-4)
- Buffalo Bills (8-4)
In the Hunt:
- Houston Texans (7-5)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6)
- Kansas City Chiefs (6-6)
- Miami Dolphins (5-7)
- Cincinnati Bengals (4-8)
- New York Jets (3-9)
- Cleveland Browns (3-9)
AFC East Standings
- New England Patriots (11-2)
- Buffalo Bills (8-4)
- Miami Dolphins (4-7)
- New York Jets (3-9)
Tiebreakers That Matter for Buffalo
In Buffalo’s favor:
- Head-to-head wins over the Ravens, Steelers, and Chiefs
- A solid 5-3 record against AFC opponents
Working against them:
- Houston owns the head-to-head tiebreaker
- New England currently holds both the head-to-head and division record tiebreakers
What’s Ahead: Bills’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 14: vs. Cincinnati Bengals (Dec. 7, 1 p.m.
ET, FOX)
- Week 15: at New England Patriots (Dec. 14, 1 p.m.
ET, CBS)
- Week 16: at Cleveland Browns (Dec. 21, 1 p.m.
ET, CBS)
- Week 17: vs.
Philadelphia Eagles (Dec. 28, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX)
- Week 18: vs. New York Jets (Jan.
3-4, TBD)
The Bottom Line
The Bills aren’t in the playoffs yet, but they’re right there. They’ve got the wins, the resume, and the opportunity. The wild-card path is very much within reach - and the division isn’t off the table just yet.
But it all comes down to Week 15 in Foxborough. That’s the swing game.
Win it, and the door stays open. Lose it, and the Patriots slam it shut.
For now, Buffalo just needs to keep winning - and keep believing.