AFC East Showdown: How the Bills Can Still Snatch the Division from the Patriots
It’s December, and in true Buffalo Bills fashion, the drama is alive and well. After another thrilling comeback win - this time over the division-leading New England Patriots - the Bills have thrown the AFC East race into high gear.
Josh Allen once again put the team on his back, but while the win was massive, it wasn’t a clincher. Not yet.
The Bills are 10-4. The Patriots are 11-3.
One game separates them, but the path to the division crown is anything but straightforward. Buffalo needs to keep winning, sure - but they also need a little help from the rest of the league.
Let’s break down exactly what has to happen for the Bills to take the AFC East, and why missing the playoffs entirely is still a possibility if things go sideways.
Where Things Stand: The AFC East Title Race
Right now, New England holds the top spot at 11-3, with Buffalo trailing at 10-4. If both teams win out, the Patriots take the division.
But if New England slips up just once and the Bills win the rest, things get interesting. That would trigger the tiebreaker system - and that’s where Buffalo can potentially leapfrog their rivals.
Here’s how the NFL sorts out division ties:
- Head-to-head record
- Divisional win percentage
- Common games win percentage
- Conference win percentage
- Strength of victory (SoV)
- Strength of schedule (SoS)
- Points scored and allowed in conference games
- Points scored and allowed in all games
- Net points in common games
- Net points in all games
- Net touchdowns in all games
- Coin toss
Yes, it can go all the way down to a coin flip - but we’re not there yet. Let’s walk through the most likely scenarios.
Tiebreaker 1: Head-to-Head
The Bills and Patriots have split their season series, so this one’s a wash. We move on.
Tiebreaker 2: Divisional Win Percentage
This is where things start to tilt.
- Patriots: 3-1 in the division
- Bills: 3-2 in the division
New England has two AFC East games left - against the Jets and Dolphins. Buffalo has one left, a Week 18 showdown with the Jets.
If the Bills are going to win the division via this tiebreaker, they need the Patriots to lose at least one of those remaining division games. If New England drops both, and Buffalo wins out, the Bills take the AFC East outright. If the Pats lose just one, we move to the next tiebreaker.
Tiebreaker 3: Common Games
This one’s tight.
- Bills: 6-1 in common games
- Patriots: 6-1 in common games
Each team has one common opponent left:
- Bills: Cleveland Browns
- Patriots: Baltimore Ravens
If Buffalo beats the Browns and New England loses to the Ravens, the Bills win this tiebreaker. Both of those games happen in Week 16, so we’ll know soon whether this path is still in play.
If both teams win or both lose, we move on again.
Tiebreaker 4: Conference Win Percentage
This could be Buffalo’s best shot if the earlier ones don’t break their way.
- Bills: 7-3 in AFC games
- Patriots: 6-3 in AFC games
Buffalo has two conference games left - against the Browns and Jets. New England has three: Ravens, Jets, Dolphins.
If Buffalo wins both, they finish 9-3 in the conference. If New England loses any one of their remaining AFC games, they’d fall to 8-4. That would give Buffalo the edge.
But here’s the catch: to even reach this tiebreaker, the Patriots would need to lose one divisional game (to trigger the tiebreaker cascade), and the Bills would have to win out. So this scenario only works if Buffalo is perfect the rest of the way and New England stumbles at least once in-division.
What Needs to Happen for Buffalo to Win the AFC East
Let’s lay it out clearly. Here are the Bills’ paths to the division title:
- Win Out, Patriots Lose One Game
The cleanest route. If Buffalo finishes 13-4 and New England drops to 12-5, the Bills win the division outright.
- Tie Record, Patriots Lose Both AFC East Games If both teams finish 13-4, but the Patriots lose to both the Jets and Dolphins, Buffalo wins the division on divisional win percentage.
- Tie Record, Patriots Lose to Ravens and One AFC East Team, Bills Beat Browns
This would bring both teams to 13-4 with identical divisional records. The next tiebreaker - common games - would go to Buffalo if they beat the Browns and New England loses to the Ravens.
- Tie Record, Patriots Lose One AFC East Game, Bills Win All Remaining AFC Games
If the common games tiebreaker is still tied, it goes to conference win percentage. Buffalo would win here by going 9-3 in the AFC, while New England would be 8-4.
The Bottom Line
Buffalo’s comeback over New England didn’t just keep their playoff hopes alive - it cracked the door open for a division title. But the road ahead is tight, and there’s no room for error. The Bills need to take care of business against the Browns, Eagles, and Jets, and they’ll need at least one misstep from the Patriots to make it all count.
This is where December football gets real. Every snap, every drive, every scoreboard update matters.
The Bills are in the hunt - and if you’re a fan in Western New York, you’re going to want to buckle up. This ride’s far from over.