Bills’ Banged-Up Secondary Faces Sean Payton’s Chessboard: Can McDermott Counter?
ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. - There’s never a great time to be down to your fourth or fifth safety, but heading into a playoff showdown with Sean Payton? That’s about as high-risk as it gets.
Buffalo’s safety room has been hit hard. Cole Bishop, the rookie who opened the season as a starter, is still standing - and playing well - but he’s now the most experienced healthy option heading into Saturday’s AFC Divisional clash with the top-seeded Denver Broncos. That’s not exactly what you want to hear when Payton is the one calling plays on the other sideline.
The Bills have already lost Taylor Rapp and Damar Hamlin for extended stretches, and now Jordan Poyer - the veteran leader of the group - has been ruled out with a hamstring injury. That leaves Buffalo scrambling for answers in the back end, and against Payton’s offense, that’s a dangerous place to be.
“I didn’t know it was that bleak back there,” said former Bills Pro Bowl safety Jairus Byrd, who knows both Buffalo and Payton’s systems intimately.
Right now, the Bills are looking at a mix of rookies and special teamers to help hold the line. Fifth-round pick Jordan Hancock finished last week’s win over Jacksonville, but head coach Sean McDermott could lean on Cam Lewis, a versatile depth piece who’s mostly played special teams but has four career starts at safety.
There is a potential boost on the horizon - Hamlin has been activated from injured reserve and fully participated in practice this week. But he hasn’t played since Week 5 after a pectoral injury, and even before that, he was barely seeing the field on defense. So while his return is encouraging, it’s hard to know how much of a factor he’ll be.
Still, Hamlin’s mindset reflects the culture Buffalo has built under McDermott.
“One thing about us here in Buffalo, it’s always been a ‘next man up’ mentality,” Hamlin said. “Everybody whose opportunity is not right now, they’re preparing their ass off until it is their time.”
That mentality will be tested in a big way this weekend. Payton is known for his ability to dissect defenses, especially when he senses inexperience. And with an extra week to prepare, you can bet he’s cooking up ways to put Buffalo’s young safeties in tough spots - mentally and physically.
“He’ll test it and test it early,” Byrd said. “A lot of motions, a lot of tempo, a lot of movement.
He’s going to want to see: Do you know your assignment? Can you play the ball in the air?
Will you panic?”
Byrd would know. He played three seasons under Payton in New Orleans after three Pro Bowl years with the Bills. And he’s not alone in expecting Payton to zero in on Buffalo’s secondary.
Dirk Koetter, who faced Payton for years in the NFC South as head coach in Tampa and offensive coordinator in Atlanta, believes Payton will first attack Buffalo’s tendencies and schemes - but if he spots a weak link, he won’t hesitate to exploit it.
“If Sean can get that third-team safety in a predictable situation - maybe they bring quarters on a certain down and distance - he’ll have checks ready to go after that,” Koetter said.
Ron Rivera, another longtime NFC South rival of Payton’s, expects misdirection and play-action to be key tools in the Broncos’ game plan.
“Right off the bat, I see them getting into shifts, motions, and different formation looks to confuse the inexperienced safeties,” Rivera said. “Play-action would be another way to test them. If he sees those guys flying up, then he’ll take shots deep.”
And that’s where things could get dicey. Broncos quarterback Bo Nix has been solid with play-action this season - not eye-popping, but efficient. His completion percentage, yards per attempt, and passer rating all ticked up when using play-action, and that’s the kind of incremental edge Payton loves to build on.
Rivera pointed out that Payton’s offenses often run the ball well not just because of talent, but because of how effectively they use play-action to manipulate defenses.
“He’ll probably use play-action to suck these guys up so they’re coming downhill,” Rivera said, “and then get a receiver behind them.”
Now, McDermott has options to counter. He’s a defensive coach through and through, and this chess match between him and Payton could end up defining the game. Rivera, who worked alongside McDermott in Carolina, knows how much thought will go into Buffalo’s plan.
“To attack them, Payton is going to have to figure out what McDermott wants to do to protect them,” Rivera said. “Does he bring pressure?
Does he want to rush four? Are they going to play more man and be aggressive or soft zone?
Will they try to disguise coverages or invert the safeties?”
The Bills’ pass rush could be a factor here. When rushing four, Buffalo tied for 16th in sacks this season with 25, ranked 25th in pressures, and tied for 12th in interceptions.
Bishop, despite being a rookie, led the safety group with three picks. Poyer had one before going down.
Rivera suspects McDermott may lean on his four-man front to avoid exposing the secondary, but he also wouldn’t be surprised to see some early blitzes to shake up Nix’s rhythm.
“You’ve got to be willing to run pressures to try and get the ball out of Bo Nix’s hands quicker,” Rivera said. “If you’re successful with a couple pressures early on and you’ve got a chance to hit the quarterback, he’s going to be thinking.”
That’s the balance McDermott has to strike: protect the back end without letting Payton dictate the tempo. Because once Payton sees a crack, he’s not just going to poke at it - he’s going to drive a wedge through it.
For Buffalo, it’s going to take more than just grit and resilience. It’s going to take a smart, layered game plan and execution from players who, just a few weeks ago, weren’t expected to be in these high-leverage spots.
But this is playoff football. And in Buffalo, where “next man up” isn’t just a slogan but a necessity, the opportunity is there - even if the margin for error isn’t.