The Bills’ offense has been humming in 2026, but the next two games are about to put one of its quietest strengths under a bright light.
That matters because Buffalo’s passing attack has become much more dangerous when opponents bring extra heat. Josh Allen’s numbers against the blitz have jumped sharply from 2025 to 2026, turning what was once a middling area into one of the offense’s biggest advantages.
In 2025, Allen’s blitz splits among 41 quarterbacks with at least 50 drop backs looked like this: 21st in success rate, 27th in completion percentage over expected, 19th in adjusted completion percentage, 30th in off-target throw rate, and 14th in expected points added per drop back.
This season, those marks have moved way up: 4th in success rate, 9th in completion percentage over expected, 9th in adjusted completion percentage, 14th in off-target throw rate, and 2nd in expected points added per drop back.
That surge has come with Joe Brady now running the offense as head coach, and it arrives at a perfect time. Buffalo’s next two opponents, the Baltimore Ravens and Minnesota Vikings, are both heavy blitz teams - though not in the same way and not with the same level of success.
Baltimore has blitzed on 36.5% of opposing plays, which ranks eighth in the NFL. Minnesota, under defensive coordinator Brian Flores, has gone even further, blitzing at a staggering 73.9% clip, by far the highest rate in the league.
The way those blitzes have worked is where the contrast really shows up. The Ravens are 23rd in EPA per play allowed when blitzing, while the Vikings are 4th in that same category. Baltimore also has a meaningful split between what it gives up when blitzing, +0.16 EPA per play, and when rushing four, -0.02.
So yes, both defenses bring pressure. But they do it differently, and they’ve produced very different results.
That makes the next two weeks a real test for Buffalo. The Bills have faced only one defense that ranks in the top 10 in blitz rate this season, New England at No. 5 with a 41.3% blitz rate, and that game produced Buffalo’s season-low success rate of 45.5%. It also turned out to be the Bills’ only loss.
Buffalo has been strong against the blitz overall in 2026. The question now is whether that improvement is real progress, or just a product of not running into enough teams willing to live on the edge. The Ravens and Vikings should answer that fast.
In Other News...
Bills Face One Big Question On A Maxx Crosby Trade
The Bills have spent enough time dealing with defensive inconsistency this season that any proven pass-rush help will naturally draw attention, and Maxx Crosby sits near the top of that conversation. A fit between Buffalo and the Raiders star has already been floated by CBS Sports Jordan Dajani, which makes sense on the surface for a team looking to lift its pressure off the edge and steady a unit that has had its share of issues.
Crosbys name carries obvious weight because of what he has meant to Las Vegas in recent years, even with the Raiders also trending in the wrong direction overall. The wrinkle for Buffalo is that interest is one thing and an actual deal is another, and right now there is no confirmation that the Bills have moved beyond the speculative stage, even as the idea keeps hanging over the market. [Read more 🡒]
Bills Trade Deadline Focus Is Narrowing Around One Real Roster Decision
With the trade deadline approaching, the Bills are doing what contenders usually do at this time of year: weighing whether a small roster tweak could help them keep pace in the AFC without disrupting what is already working. Lloyd Cushenberry, Mike Danna and Josh Palmer have all come up in the conversation as possible trade candidates, but the idea is less about chasing a splash and more about making one clean, targeted decision.
Palmer is the name to watch most closely because his role has been limited, which naturally makes him easier to imagine in a deal if Buffalo chooses to reshape the bottom of the roster. No trade has been reported yet, and the Bills still have time to let the market come to them, but the sense is that this is narrowing toward one real question rather than a wide-open deadline chase. [Read more 🡒]
Bills Head Into Ravens Test With One Massive Problem Behind Josh Allen
Buffalo heads into its meeting with Baltimore at 5-1 and sitting atop the AFC East, which is exactly where a contender wants to be this late in October. Josh Allen has been the driving force, giving the offense the kind of week-to-week punch that keeps the Bills in control of games and capable of surviving stretches when things get loose.
But there is a bigger concern lurking beneath that start, and it does not have anything to do with the scoreboard on offense. A statistic shared by Anthony Dabbundo paints an uncomfortable picture of the Bills through the first seven weeks, one that suggests the team is living in an unusually rare kind of imbalance as the Ravens loom on the schedule. [Read more 🡒]