What if the NFL had a pass-game stat that actually knew who the offense was facing?
That’s the idea behind APEX, a new metric built to put context around how well passing attacks are really performing. Instead of looking at raw EPA per dropback in a vacuum, APEX adjusts for the quality of the defenses on the other side. The goal is simple: avoid inflating a quarterback’s numbers against a soft schedule, and avoid punishing another passer who has been running into a gauntlet.
The concept works by comparing a pass game’s EPA per dropback against a specific defense to that defense’s baseline against everyone else. In other words, APEX asks whether an offense did better or worse than expected based on what that defense usually allows. It’s the offensive mirror of DIP, the defensive version of the same idea.
The math is straightforward enough once the framing is clear: APEX = (Total Actual EPA - Total Expected EPA) / Total Qualifying Dropbacks.
Like other EPA-based stats, higher is better. The number is calculated per dropback, and the denominator only includes qualifying snaps in which win probability sits between 10% and 90%, with garbage time removed.
Scrambles and sacks count. Designed runs do not.
Spikes and kneeldowns are out.
With seven full weeks in the books, there’s finally enough of a baseline to start making sense of how teams have done relative to the defenses they’ve faced. And the early leaderboard offers some interesting wrinkles.
Buffalo is sitting at the top, which fits the way the Bills’ offense has looked through six games. It has been excellent no matter the opponent, handling both easier and tougher matchups with the same level of efficiency.
Miami’s ranking tells a different story from its record. The Dolphins are 18th in APEX, which suggests the offense hasn’t been as badly overmatched by opponent quality as the 1-5 mark might imply.
Houston comes in 14th in APEX, even though the Texans are 9th in regular EPA per dropback through seven weeks. C.J Stroud has had a fine start to a critical 2026 campaign, but the adjustment changes the picture a bit.
Jacksonville slides only slightly, landing seventh in APEX after ranking two spots higher in standard EPA per dropback.
The biggest climb belongs to the Jacoby Brissett Cardinals. They’re 26th in EPA per dropback, but 21st in APEX, with games against the Seahawks, 49ers, and Broncos dragging down the raw passing numbers.
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