Week 10 brings a handful of receiver and tight end spots that could swing lineup decisions, and a few of them are pretty easy to spot once you dig into the matchup numbers. Some pass catchers are walking into favorable coverage, while others are staring at defenses that have quietly made life miserable on the outside or in the slot.
Start with the Panthers and Saints, where the slot picture looks far better than it did early in the season. New Orleans ranks 10th in fantasy points per target allowed to slot receivers at 2.02, but that number only tells part of the story.
Since Week 5, the Saints have been much more vulnerable in that area, giving up the league’s fourth highest completion rate over expected on slot throws, plus the fifth highest success rate and the fifth highest adjusted yards per attempt. That sets up nicely for both Jalen Coker and Darren Waller, who were already highlighted in Week 10’s Regression Files.
Waller’s usage last week against Denver - 99 air yards - makes him especially hard to ignore, even if starting him feels a little like chasing points. Still, the matchup and the possibility of a back-and-forth game between two fast-paced offenses make this one worth leaning into.
The Steelers-Bengals game has a similar feel, with volume likely to be the story. Cincinnati has been one of the better slot matchups on paper, allowing 2.15 fantasy points per target to slot receivers, which ranks fifth.
More importantly, the Bengals have given up a league-high 58 percent of their opponents’ receiving points to the slot. Only the Dolphins, Lions, and Raiders have allowed a higher EPA per pass attempt to slot receivers in 2026.
That should help Germie Bernard, who runs from the slot on 53 percent of his routes. It could also give Pat Freiermuth a boost, since he leads the Steelers this season with a 64.5 percent slot rate.
Darnell Washington is a different kind of case entirely, with a 25 percent target rate on his pass routes but only a 9 percent slot rate.
Then there’s Falcons-Chiefs, where the matchup is rougher than it looks for the players you’d normally want to trust. Kansas City ranks 26th in fantasy points per target allowed to slot receivers at 1.62, and the numbers get even colder from there.
The Chiefs are allowing the eighth lowest success rate on slot throws and the second lowest expected touchdowns to slot pass catchers. Kyle Pitts, who lines up in the slot on 35 percent of his routes, is in a tough spot.
Drake London isn’t exactly insulated either, since he operates from the slot at a 40 percent rate.
On the boundary side, Bills-Jets offers a cleaner path for DJ Moore. New York has allowed 1.98 fantasy points per target to boundary receivers, which ranks fifth, and the secondary has slipped lately.
The Jets have given up the NFL’s sixth highest EPA per pass attempt to boundary wideouts, along with the seventh most expected touchdowns to the outside. Only five defenses are worse in adjusted yards per attempt on boundary throws.
Moore lines up on the boundary at a 74 percent rate, so even if Buffalo keeps leaning run-heavy, he still looks positioned well enough to matter.
The Patriots-Lions game points in the opposite direction for A.J. Brown.
Detroit ranks 28th in fantasy points per target allowed to boundary receivers at 1.54, but the Lions have actually held up better outside than they have in the slot. They’re allowing the league’s ninth lowest completion rate over expected on boundary pass attempts this season.
Brown enters Week 10 with the same EPA per target as Jahan Dotson, and that’s not the kind of company you want in this spot. DeMario Douglas has the much better matchup, and Hunter Henry does too.
Brown, if he plays, needs to be handled carefully.
In Other News...
Bills Suddenly Have A Josh Allen Protection Concern Against The Jets
The Bills are heading into their matchup with the Jets with a familiar issue suddenly hanging over the offensive line. Dion Dawkins, Alec Anderson and Connor McGovern were all limited in practice, but the bigger concern is on the right side, where Spencer Brown sat out Thursday after picking up an ankle injury in the previous game.
Browns availability now looms as one of the key questions of the week because of what it means for Josh Allens protection. If Brown cannot go, Tylan Grable could be in line to start at right tackle, leaving Buffalo to shuffle its front just as it tries to keep its offense steady against a division opponent that will be looking to test every weak spot. [Read more 🡒]
Josh Allen Brings Another Bills Milestone Chase To The Jets
Josh Allen keeps adding to the Bills record book in ways that go well beyond the usual quarterback milestones, and Sundays matchup with the Jets offers another chance for the numbers to keep moving. Allen and James Cook both went over 5,000 rushing yards in Buffalo colors, with Cook now sitting ahead of Allen on the franchises all-time rushing list, a reminder of how much ground the Bills have covered on the ground even with Allen doing so much of the heavy lifting himself.
The bigger chase still belongs to Allen, who is closing in on the NFL mark for combined passing and rushing touchdowns through his first 10 seasons, while also nearing 90 career rushing touchdowns. There are other Bills storylines tucked into the same stretch run, too, with Greg Rousseau edging toward a personal best in sacks and Dawson Knox climbing the teams all-time receiving touchdowns list, giving Buffalo a handful of individual milestones to track as the season tightens up. [Read more 🡒]
Bills Defense Is Suddenly Giving Fans A Reason To Believe
The Bills have spent the early part of the season trying to find a defensive identity, and over the past two games there are signs it may finally be coming into focus. Buffalo has looked sturdier against the run, created more pressure on opposing quarterbacks and started turning those stops into the kind of disruptive plays that can change a game, with Greg Rousseau helping lead the push off the edge.
Amani Hookers arrival from the Tennessee Titans before the trade deadline only adds to the sense that Buffalo is trying to harden the back end as well as the front seven. The Bills are coming out of Week 8 and Week 9 with sacks, interceptions and a defense that has made life noticeably harder on opposing offenses, which is exactly the sort of development that can shift the tone around a team heading into the stretch run. [Read more 🡒]