The Buffalo Bills built plenty of buzz over the first two weeks by doing something that made them stand out in a league obsessed with numbers: leaning hard into 13 personnel. With three tight ends on the field, Buffalo looked efficient, unpredictable, and different. That approach helped fuel a 2-0 start and an average of 38.5 points per game.
But the last two weeks have told a different story.
That heavy tight end usage has nearly disappeared, and the Bills have moved away from the groupings that helped set them apart early. The most surprising part came in Week 4, when DJ Moore left in the first half and did not return, a moment that seemed to invite more multiple-tight-end looks.
Buffalo still didn’t really go there. Even against New England, the lack of 13 personnel didn’t feel tied to the game flow, since no team ever led by more than a touchdown.
Dalton Kincaid’s role makes that shift even more notable. He was on the field for just 35 snaps in Week 4, his first game under 40 snaps this season.
For Buffalo, that ought to be the exception, not the new normal. Kincaid may not drive defenders backward in the run game the way Dawson Knox or Jackson Hawes can, but his value is tied to what his presence does to a defense.
When the Bills are in multiple-tight-end looks around 30-40% of the time, opponents can’t just assume pass and load up accordingly. They have to play more base defense and give away less.
When that grouping barely shows up, the disguise disappears.
If Moore can’t play against the Rams, Buffalo needs to lean back into multiple-tight-end personnel as much as it can. That doesn’t have to mean only 13 personnel.
The Bills can work through different tight end combinations in 12 personnel, too. The numbers back up the idea: Buffalo has fallen to 23rd in EPA per play out of 13 personnel, with the last two weeks doing real damage there, but the team is fourth in EPA per play when using 12 personnel.
There’s also a physical side to all of this. The tight end trio has to block better for these sets to truly open up the run game, and that especially applies to Kincaid. Without Moore, Buffalo should be moving away from 11 personnel, because the receiver group simply isn’t one of the team’s strengths right now.
Beyond Josh Allen, the tight ends, the running backs, and the offensive line are the pieces the Bills can trust most. As Bruce wrote earlier today, Buffalo may need to look backward to find the answers in front of it.
In Other News...
Bills Fans Will Feel Mitch Morses Heartbreaking Family News
Mitch Morse shared heartbreaking family news this week, announcing the death of his younger brother Robbie, who passed away last week at 30. Robbie had lived with lifelong disabilities after suffering severe brain trauma as an infant, and the Morse family had long been open about his story, turning their private struggle into something many football fans came to know over the years.
The loss is one that will resonate in Buffalo, where Morse spent part of his career and built a strong connection with the fan base. Condolences poured in from across the NFL, including from former teammates and multiple teams, a reminder of how widely Robbies story was felt beyond one locker room. [Read more 🡒]
Bills Suddenly Have A Problem They May Need To Trade For
The Bills 29-26 loss to the Patriots did more than dent the standings. It also pushed a familiar concern back into the spotlight: a secondary that is being asked to hold up while the defense adjusts to Jim Leonhards system, all while injuries keep stripping away experienced options. Buffalo has had to lean on less seasoned defensive backs, and the results have made the back end look like a spot that could use help sooner rather than later.
With the trade deadline still on the horizon in 2026, the question is whether Buffalo waits for its current group to stabilize or starts looking outside the building for reinforcements. The need is obvious enough after a night like this, but the challenge is finding a move that actually fits both the Bills defense and the urgency created by a thin, banged-up secondary. [Read more 🡒]
Bills Face A Risky Tyreek Hill Decision With AFC Stakes
Tyreek Hill is expected to land with an NFL team soon after working his way back from a season-ending injury and being released by the Dolphins, and the Bills are one of the clubs that could wind up in the mix. NFL insider Albert Breer pointed to Buffalo and Kansas City as the two most obvious fits, which makes sense given how both early AFC contenders could use help at wide receiver and have enough ambition to think beyond simple depth.
For Buffalo, the appeal is obvious and the risk is just as clear. Hill would give the offense another dangerous weapon, but the Bills would also be weighing his recovery and age against the possibility that the Chiefs could get there first. In a conference where every edge matters, the decision is less about whether Hill can help and more about how much a contender wants to bet on what he still has left. [Read more 🡒]