Bills Offense May Finally Be Ready To Break A Predictable Habit

With the addition of DJ Moore and Joe Brady's new leadership, the Buffalo Bills might be poised for a shift towards unbalanced offensive formations in the 2026 season.

The Bills spent 2025 leaning into balance, and not just in the abstract. Buffalo lined up in 2x2 on 40.67% of its regular-season snaps, according to SumerSports, making that the team’s most common look across 1,082 charted plays. When it came to 1x3 and 3x1 sets, the Bills combined for 33.54% of their offensive snaps - the 23rd and 31st highest rates in the NFL, respectively.

That kind of formational profile is worth watching again in 2026, because two pieces around the offense have changed. Joe Brady is still there, now as head coach after serving as offensive coordinator, but Sean McDermott is out of the picture. And Buffalo added DJ Moore, a receiver who gives the offense something it didn’t really have last season.

McDermott’s exact influence on the offense is impossible to pin down from the outside. As head coach, he was involved somewhere in the mix, but whether his fingerprints were mainly on game management and run-pass balance or on the team’s broader preference for even, symmetrical looks is something we can’t say for certain. What is clear is that Moore brings a different kind of threat.

He looks like the truest X receiver Buffalo has had since former No. 1 wideout and current free agent Stefon Diggs left. That matters because teams are often less eager to get into unbalanced looks when they don’t trust the isolated backside receiver to win one-on-one, especially on intermediate and deep routes.

In 3x1 or 1x3 formations, the offense often builds the first part of the read on the strong side before coming back to a backside dig. If the outside receiver on that lonely side isn’t someone defenses have to respect, those formations can lose some appeal.

Even with a productive passing game in 2025, Buffalo didn’t really have that kind of dependable true X on the perimeter. Keon Coleman may have been the player the Bills hoped would grow into the role, but that question is off the table now. Moore should step into that spot right away, even if he also moves around the formation.

Brady has already described himself as a “Sean Payton disciple”, and that adds another layer to the discussion. The Denver Broncos, as a point of reference, used unbalanced formations 40.02% of the time in 2025. Whether Buffalo gets closer to that kind of number in 2026 is something to monitor as the season unfolds and Brady and Moore leave their mark on the offense.

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For Buffalo fans, the frustrating part is what that says about the return in any hypothetical deal. Cooks value is being dragged down by the same forces that have made running backs harder to move for premium picks, and Barnwells exercise put him alongside players who are more likely to be viewed as useful pieces than headline-grabbing assets. It is all academic for now, though, because the Bills are not shopping Cook and plan to keep him in the fold. [Read more 🡒]