The Buffalo Bills and Minnesota Vikings are about to step into a pretty rare kind of spotlight on Monday Night Football in Week 9.
This is only the seventh time since 2017 that the No. 1 offense in EPA per play will line up against the No. 1 defense in EPA allowed per play. That matters because EPA per play gives a cleaner read on how good a unit really is than the usual yards-per-game or points-per-game rankings.
The recent track record says this kind of showdown doesn’t tilt hard one way or the other. The six previous meetings produced a 3-3 split:
- 2019, Week 9: Ravens 37, Patriots 20
- 2020, Week 6: Buccaneers 38, Packers 10
- 2021, Week 5: Bills 38, Chiefs 20
- 2021, Week 14: Buccaneers 33, Bills 27 (OT)
- 2022, Week 7: Chiefs 44, 49ers 23
- 2025, Week 13: Texans 20, Colts 16
Go back even further, to 2001, and the sample grows by nine more games. Across those 16 total matchups, the No. 1 offense has gone 10-6. That’s a modest edge, not a landslide.
The scoring in those games has also been solid but not outrageous. The No. 1 offense averaged 25.6 points, and it came into those games with an average EPA per play of +0.217.
Against the top defense, though, that number dropped to +0.059 in the game itself - a mark that would sit between the current No. 9 Patriots and No.
8 Bears in offensive EPA per play.
One other wrinkle stands out: seven of those 16 games saw the No. 1 offense finish with a negative EPA per play against the No. 1 defense.
So when Buffalo and Minnesota meet, the numbers say this is usually a tight, even fight - with only a slight lean toward the team carrying the top offense.
In Other News...
Bills Add Familiar AFC East Help Ahead Of Tough Week 9
The Bills added some familiar AFC East experience to their secondary this week, signing cornerback Kader Kohou to the practice squad ahead of their Week 9 matchup with the Vikings. Kohou arrives with a background that should make the transition easier, having spent three seasons with Miami and also time with Kansas City before his recent release.
For Buffalo, the move is about adding another layer of depth at a position that can get stressed quickly over the course of a season. The Bills are trying to keep momentum rolling with a fourth straight win in sight, and bringing in a player who knows the division gives them a little more insurance as the schedule tightens. [Read more 🡒]
Bills Face A Keon Coleman Decision That Could Split Fans
Keon Coleman has given the Bills a useful early return, with three touchdowns and 287 yards on 20 catches, and his presence has been part of Buffalos effort to keep the offense moving while the roster gets sorted out for the stretch run. Even so, the Bills are still weighing where they need help most as they try to build a team good enough for a real Super Bowl push.
That is where the conversation gets interesting, because ESPNs Dan Graziano floated the idea that Coleman could become part of a deal to bring in defensive help. No trade has been reported, but the mere possibility is enough to spark debate in Buffalo, where fans are already trying to figure out whether a productive young receiver is a core piece or a movable asset. [Read more 🡒]
Bills Return From Bye Facing A Defense Built To Rattle Josh Allen
The Bills come out of their bye week and right back into a matchup that should tell plenty about where this team stands, with the Ravens visiting Highmark Stadium for a 1 p.m. kickoff. Baltimore is 4-3 but sitting last in the AFC North after back-to-back losses, so the record still says a contender, even if the recent form has been uneven. For Buffalo, the focus is less on the standings and more on how the offense handles a defense that can make a quarterback work for every clean throw.
Josh Allen has built his reputation on surviving pressure and turning broken plays into gains, which is why this is the kind of game that always draws extra attention. The Bills also enter with some fresh questions in the secondary after recent changes there, adding another layer to a meeting that already feels like an early test after the break. If Buffalo wants to use the bye as a reset, this is the sort of opponent that quickly shows whether it actually worked. [Read more 🡒]