Bills May Need Dalton Kincaid More Than Ever Right Now

Can the Bills reignite their offensive spark by focusing on untapped potential within their tight end lineup?

The Bills have a simple problem staring them in the face after the loss to New England: the tight end room needs to become part of the passing plan again.

That urgency only grows with the extra day before Monday Night Football against the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium. Buffalo is also managing the injury situation around star wide receiver D.J. Moore, who has been dealing with a nagging AC joint sprain dating back to Week 2 against the Detroit Lions and then hurt his shoulder again against the Patriots.

So if the offense is looking for a spark, Dalton Kincaid is the obvious place to start.

Kincaid opened the season like the player Buffalo drafted in 2023. Against the Texans in Week 1, he led the team with 130 yards on five catches, flashing both burst at the line and juice after the catch, even though he did not score. He followed that up in Week 2 against the Lions with 95 yards on seven receptions and his first touchdown of the year.

Through two games, he had 225 receiving yards and was already the Bills’ top target. Per Pro Football Focus, he now leads tight ends in receiving yards with 270.

But the last two weeks have been a different story. Against the Chargers in Week 3, Kincaid managed 38 yards on two catches.

Moore paced the Bills with 67 yards on six receptions before aggravating his AC joint and exiting. Then against the Patriots in Week 4, Kincaid was held to a season-low seven yards on one catch with no touchdowns, while Moore finished with just 11 yards on one reception.

Keon Coleman led Buffalo’s passing attack in that game with 116 yards on six catches.

Even with the quiet stretch, Kincaid still leads the Bills in receiving yards with 270 and one touchdown. Coleman follows with 217 yards on 14 catches, and Moore has 178 yards on 12 receptions and one touchdown.

The structure around him matters, too. Kincaid played only 35 snaps against the Patriots because Buffalo leaned on 11 personnel - one running back and one tight end - instead of its usual 13 personnel package with one running back and three tight ends. The Bills needed that look because they were trying to move the ball methodically, and they also struggled to get James Cook and the run game going against New England’s defense.

That’s where Dawson Knox and Jackson Hawes come in.

Kincaid has been the clear receiving threat among the tight ends. Knox has just 30 receiving yards, but both he and Hawes have stood out as blockers in the run game and in pass protection. In Buffalo’s usual 13 personnel, Knox and Kincaid can align as the traditional tight ends on the left and right, with Hawes working as the H-back since the Bills do not have a traditional fullback on the roster.

There’s another option, too: Knox and Hawes can take the two tight end spots while Kincaid lines up as the H-back and becomes a screen-game weapon.

However Buffalo chooses to sort it out, the bigger point is clear. The Bills need to get back to their 13 personnel looks and get Kincaid involved again as a receiver. The Rams are in plenty of 13 personnel themselves - they have five active tight ends on the roster, while Buffalo has four - so this is the kind of week where the Bills can work that part of the offense back into the plan.

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