Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills have built a reputation as one of the league’s most dangerous offenses, and the numbers back that up in a place you might not expect: third-and-long.
Since the start of 2020, Buffalo has been the best team in the NFL on third down with 10 or more yards to go, converting 27.9% of those chances. That’s over a six-year stretch and 290 plays, which is also the fewest such situations in the league over that span. In other words, the Bills not only handle third-and-10-plus better than anyone else - they avoid getting there more than anyone else, too.
That 27.9% figure stands out even more when you put it in context. It was close to the Vikings’ overall third-down conversion rate in any situation during the 2025 season, which sat at 31.7%.
Kansas City, led by Patrick Mahomes, finished second in the league, but Buffalo still held a clear edge. The gap between the Bills and the Chiefs was about the same as the gap between Kansas City and the Chargers, who checked in fifth.
Baltimore landed just outside the top five at No. 6 with a 22.9% conversion rate, followed by Cincinnati at 22.1%.
A few other teams showed up further down the list: the Lions were eighth at 21.9%, the Eagles ninth at 20.9%, the Texans 13th at 20.3%, the Rams 17th at 19.5%, the Broncos 18th at 19.0%, the Buccaneers 19th at 18.9%, and the Cowboys 24th at 17.8%.
The larger point is simple. Across the league, a team facing third-and-10 or longer is converting about one out of every five times. With Buffalo, that number jumps to nearly three out of every 10.
And with Allen at the controls, that makes sense. His pocket feel, his ability to create, and his scrambling all show up when the Bills are backed into a corner.
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