Bills fans got a little extra fuel from a fresh AFC forecast that doesn’t have the Chiefs back in the playoff field in 2026.
That matters in Buffalo because Kansas City’s stumble last season already gave the Bills a clean win over a team that looked nothing like its usual self. Buffalo beat the Chiefs 28-21 in a game that felt like it should not have been that close, and Kansas City’s overall slide was one of the biggest surprises in the league. By the time Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL in Week 15 against the Los Angeles Chargers, the Chiefs were sitting at 6-7 and already staring at a lost season.
Now ESPN’s Ben Solak has gone a step further and projected another rough year for Kansas City. In his 2026 predictions, Solak has the Chiefs missing the playoffs again.
" As such, while I expect a better Chiefs team in 2026 -- one that actually gets big gains on the ground and gets after the passer more consistently with rookies Peter Woods and R Mason Thomas -- I don't expect a viable AFC West contender. The Broncos have a clearly better roster across the board.
The Chargers are fairly equal in talent and might explode offensively under new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel. The rest of the conference remains as deep and intimidating as always.
There are only seven playoff spots to go around, and I don't think the Chiefs have a top-seven roster in the AFC."
Solak also pointed to Mahomes’ injury as a major factor.
" And that's before we get to the Mahomes injury. A torn ACL in December is nothing to sneeze at, even if his recovery looks like it's going well. Every game Mahomes doesn't play in September is a game the Chiefs might fall behind in the division and in the conference."
Kansas City did add the Super Bowl MVP from last year in Kenneth Walker, but the move comes with questions. Solak’s view is that Walker is not a consistent playmaker, and the Chiefs also gave him a sizable contract at a time when the defense had other needs.
The team did draft heavily on defense, but that doesn’t erase the possibility of growing pains. Steve Spagnuolo has been able to work magic before, but there’s no guarantee he can keep pulling the same trick with this group.
And the AFC won’t make life any easier. Solak sees the Broncos at the top, with the Chargers pushing forward under Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert and now Mike McDaniel running the offense. In a conference that already feels crowded, another Chiefs miss would be exactly the kind of outcome Bills fans would enjoy watching unfold again.
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That makes Carter one of the more interesting names on a defensive line that already has plenty of competition for jobs and snaps. He is working his way into a new scheme while trying to prove he can handle the added bulk and the demands of the position change, and the Bills still have to sort out how many interior linemen they want to carry when the roster gets trimmed. For Carter, the path back is not just about recovery anymore, but about whether this new fit gives him a real chance to stick. [Read more 🡒]