The Bills and Lions are walking into Thursday night with fireworks written all over them, and the betting market is leaning the same way. Buffalo is a 4.5-point favorite over Detroit as the teams meet at the new $2.2 billion Highmark Stadium, which will host its first regular-season game and first prime-time game.
Both teams arrive after Week 1 slugfests that weren’t exactly light on offense. The Bills survived the Texans 36-31, while the Lions needed overtime to get past the Saints 31-30. That kind of opening act is a big reason NFL analysts are expecting points in bunches again.
The over/under sits at 53.5, with Buffalo listed at -225 on the moneyline and Detroit at +188.
Most of the early picks point to the Bills, but not by much.
At the Democrat and Chronicle, Sal Maiorana took Buffalo 37-30 and called the night in Orchard Park “electric” as the Bills open the new building in prime time. He also pointed to Buffalo’s efficiency against Houston, including two scoring drives of 96 yards.
Maiorana noted that the Bills became one of only five teams to have two drives of at least 93 yards in the same game, and that one lasted just three plays while the other took seven. His read: Detroit’s defense won’t be nearly as difficult a test as Houston’s, and Buffalo should have enough offense to win a shootout even if its defense keeps struggling.
The Detroit Free Press went the other direction on the spread, though not the game result. Dave Birkett predicted Bills 28, Lions 23 and cited the Lions’ secondary situation, writing: " Brad Holmes said he likes the guys the Lions have in the secondary. With no Kerby Joseph or Brian Branch, Josh Allen might like them, too."
AZCentral split the difference with Buffalo 30, Detroit 24. Jeremy Cluff said: "The Bills are playing their first NFL regular season game in the new Highmark Stadium.
Expect a lot of fireworks. And expect Josh Allen to be Josh Allen for Buffalo."
Iain MacMillan also backed the Bills, but he made clear he was trying not to overreact to one week. He wrote that Detroit remains “one of the best teams in the NFL,” even after injuries and poor variance kept the Lions out of the playoffs last season.
Still, he pointed to Buffalo’s defensive issues from Week 1, saying the Bills allowed Houston to pile up yards and points. MacMillan said the Bills’ defensive roster is “completely different from a year ago,” but added that ranking 19th in opponent EPA per play and 22nd in opponent success rate “isn't a good start.”
His pick: "I'll take the points with Detroit."
CBS Sports was firmly in shootout territory. John Breech went with Bills 38, Lions 31 and said both teams “combined to play zero defense last week.”
He called Thursday’s matchup the first short-week Thursday game of the season and said those games have often been close, with eight of the past 11 decided by one score and seven of the past 11 featuring both teams scoring at least 23 points. Breech also pointed back to the teams’ 2024 meeting, a 48-42 Bills win, and suggested the total could climb even higher this time.
He also flagged Detroit’s overtime game as a problem on a short week.
Dimers projected a Bills 28-24 win and gave Buffalo a 65.9% win probability compared with 34.1% for Detroit.
ESPN’s analytics were even more direct: the Bills have a 67.1% chance to win.
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Bills fans heading into the season opener against the Detroit Lions will find a new concession item waiting for them at Highmark Stadium: an exclusive reusable beer horn that comes packed with a 16 oz. Labatt Blue or Labatt Blue Light can. The item will be sold for $30 and available only until kickoff, adding another bit of novelty to a day already carrying extra weight as the first regular-season game at the Bills new stadium.
The offer is limited to fans 21 and older, and it fits the kind of game-day atmosphere Buffalo has long leaned into, especially when the building is set for such a milestone moment. Beyond the souvenir appeal, the opener still has the more important football backdrop, with the Bills looking to start their home era at Highmark Stadium the right way and move to 2-0 in the new season. [Read more 🡒]
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Dortch brings a little NFL mileage after stints with multiple teams and 12 games already on his 2025 resume, while Gore has been a steady presence on Buffalos practice squad since arriving as an undrafted free agent. The futures contract signaled the Bills wanted to keep him in the building, and this elevation gives him a chance to be part of the conversation in a meaningful spot, even if the bigger picture beyond Sunday is still unfolding. [Read more 🡒]