The Buffalo Bills are walking into Week 1 with a tough assignment, and the matchup has already drawn a gloomy prediction for Buffalo fans. Before the NFL schedule was even officially released, the Bills knew the road ahead would not be simple, even without a first-place schedule after finishing second in the division last season.
Their opener sends them to Houston, where they’ll face a Texans team that gave Buffalo fits last year. The final score stayed close, but the game itself never felt that way.
Josh Allen spent the afternoon under constant pressure, getting hit 12 times and sacked eight times. Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter combined for 4.5 sacks, while Davis Mills did just enough on the other side to help Houston escape with the win.
It was Buffalo’s worst game of last season, and now the Bills return to Houston to launch the Joe Brady era in a place where they have not had much success.
That’s part of why Lou Scataglia of NFL Spin Zone recently included the Texans among the teams “already guaranteed to win in Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season.” In his breakdown, he pointed to Allen’s history against Houston, writing, " Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills owns a 1-3 record against the Houston Texans with 3 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, and a horrid passer rating of 74. Furthermore, Buffalo was in Houston on , and lost that game."
Scataglia also noted that Allen can still have the occasional rough outing. " Allen is a superstar quarterback, but he does tend to have those head-scratching games a small handful of times per year.
This Week 1 matchup against Houston could be one of those games. The Bills get off on the wrong foot in our Week 1 NFL predictions." he added.
The Texans’ defense already looks like a problem, and there’s little reason to expect that to change. The pass rush should be coming after Allen again, while C.J.
Stroud gets a chance to attack a Bills defense that is still settling into a new look. That kind of early-season growing pain could give Houston an opening.
Bills fans never like hearing predictions like this, and Buffalo has often played its best when people doubt them. Still, the Texans have been a thorn in their side, and there’s a real chance that trend shows up again right away.
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