Week 9 reshuffled the playoff board in both conferences, and the biggest swing came from Green Bay. Jordan Love put together a huge day in a 45-27 win over the Patriots, a result that kept the Packers in the NFC wild-card mix and gave them their fifth win in six weeks. They’re 6-3 now and head back to Lambeau next Sunday for a critical NFC North meeting with the Vikings.
The Packers weren’t the only team making noise. The Chiefs snapped out of their two-game skid with a 35-12 rout of the Jets, the Bengals stayed hot with a 34-17 win over the Falcons behind Joe Burrow, and the Jaguars kept rolling with a 33-10 statement over the Ravens on Thursday night.
On the other side of the bracket, the Giants continued to climb after turning the offense over to J.J. McCarthy, while the Bears and Buccaneers are still jockeying for position in the NFC South.
Here’s where the picture stands after Week 9, with postseason probabilities from The Athletic’s playoff simulator.
Buffalo still owns the AFC’s top spot at 6-1, and the Bills will finish Week 9 against the Vikings on Monday night. That matchup brings together two extremes: Buffalo’s offense is averaging a league-best 33.3 points per game, while Minnesota’s defense is allowing a league-low 13.3.
Denver remains in control of the AFC West at 7-2 after edging the Panthers 26-21 for a fifth straight win. The Broncos were outgained again, but the result still matters more than the style points right now. With both games against the Chiefs already in the books, Denver is in a strong position to chase a second straight division title.
Jacksonville kept looking like a team built for a deep run. The Jaguars are 6-2 after Thursday night’s 33-10 win over Baltimore, a game that featured Trevor Lawrence posting a passer rating north of 100 for the sixth time this season and the defense forcing three turnovers. Two games against the 1-7 Titans over the next three weeks make the schedule look even better.
Pittsburgh stayed in first place in the AFC North while on a bye, holding the tiebreaker over Cincinnati on conference winning percentage. The Steelers are 6-2 and will meet the Bengals next Sunday night in Cincinnati before a stretch that includes Denver, Houston and Jacksonville.
Kansas City got back on track in a big way. After losses to the Seahawks and Broncos, the Chiefs thumped the Jets 35-12 and moved back to 6-2. Kenneth Walker III helped power another strong rushing effort, and Kansas City remains in the hunt for both a wild-card berth and the AFC West crown.
Cincinnati also kept its momentum rolling. The Bengals beat the Falcons 34-17 early Sunday morning, with Burrow delivering another elite outing: 83% completions, 271 yards, three touchdowns and a 140.1 passer rating. At 6-2, Cincinnati has won four straight since its 2-2 start and looks every bit like a contender as the trade deadline nears.
New England’s loss to Green Bay dropped the Patriots to 5-4 and left them barely hanging onto the AFC’s final playoff spot. The Patriots now head to Germany to face the Lions in Munich before a Week 11 bye.
The rest of the AFC race has Cleveland at 5-4, followed by Las Vegas and Baltimore at 4-5.
In the NFC, San Francisco bounced back from its Week 7 loss to Atlanta and a bye by beating the Raiders 38-17. The 49ers are 7-1 and head to Dallas next before a Week 11 showdown with the 6-1 Vikings that could carry major weight in the standings.
Minnesota enters Monday night at 6-1 and in the NFC’s No. 2 spot. The offense has been uneven, with the Vikings topping 20 points only twice, and Carson Wentz is set to start in place of the injured Kyler Murray. That has opened the door for a possible quarterback move before Tuesday’s deadline.
New York keeps climbing too. The Giants are 5-2-1 after their second straight win since handing the offense to J.J.
McCarthy, most recently a 19-9 victory over the Eagles. They remain in full control of the NFC East, with Dallas next closest at 4-5, and have winnable games ahead against the Commanders and Colts.
Tampa Bay moved into first place in the NFC South at 3-5 thanks to Carolina’s loss to Denver. The Buccaneers can’t get too comfortable, though; a loss to the Bears on Sunday night would push them back behind the Panthers.
Detroit kept pace in the NFC with a 19-9 win over the Dolphins in Miami. Jake Bates kicked four field goals, the Lions improved to 6-2, and they’ll head to Germany next Sunday to face the Patriots in Munich.
Chicago sits in the NFC’s No. 6 spot heading into Sunday night, but a win over Tampa Bay would move the Bears up to No. 5. Since Caleb Williams returned from a hamstring injury, Chicago has won three in a row and looks like a legitimate Super Bowl contender as the second half of the season approaches.
The NFC wild-card picture behind Green Bay currently shows Seattle at 4-4, the Rams at 5-4 and Dallas at 4-5.
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