The Bills don’t get much time to enjoy a Week 1 win before another heavyweight test arrives. On Thursday night, Josh Allen and Buffalo head to Detroit to face a 1-0 Lions team in what looks like one of the season’s toughest early checks. ESPN has the Bills as 5.5-point favorites, but that number comes with plenty of caution attached.
For Buffalo, the formula is pretty clear: win some key matchups, stay on schedule, and make Detroit play from behind the chains. If the Bills do that, they can walk out of Week 2 at 2-0.
One of the biggest pressure points in this game is Buffalo’s passing attack against Detroit’s man coverage. The Lions, under defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard, leaned heavily on Cover 0 in Week 1, and that kind of look has given Josh Allen more trouble than zone over the years.
In 2025, Allen posted 0.16 EPA per play against zone coverage, per Sumer Sports, which ranked fifth in the NFL. Against man coverage, that dropped to 0.08 EPA per play, good for 14th.
A lot of that comes down to the receivers around him. The Bills haven’t had a pass catcher who consistently wins against man looks in years, and that’s where DJ Moore comes in.
Moore will be tested in a big way against a Detroit secondary that may not look imposing on paper, but can still force difficult one-on-one reps. He hasn’t exactly dominated man coverage in his career, either.
Over his final two seasons with the Chicago Bears, he caught just over 50% of his targets against man coverage, compared with over 70% against zone. If he can separate, Allen gets the reliable answer he needs in critical spots.
Buffalo also has to do a better job on early downs than it did in Week 1. The offense put up 36 points against a Texans defense that was supposed to be among the league’s best, but the Bills still finished with a below-average success rate on early downs.
That left them stuck in bad down-and-distance situations and leaning on more than a few 50/50 throws to get it done. Allen can rescue drives with special plays, but Buffalo can’t ask him to live there every week.
That’s not a sustainable path, especially when turnovers can creep in if he has to carry too much.
The good news for the Bills is that they showed just how explosive this offense can be. They finished Week 1 with the highest explosive play rate in the NFL, thanks to multiple downfield shots from Allen.
Those plays are part of the package, and they should stay that way. But the real key is getting the run game and offensive line to make third downs manageable.
Buffalo was second in early-down success rate in 2025, and getting back to that level would go a long way toward controlling this game.
On the other side, Detroit’s ground game has a clear centerpiece in Jahmyr Gibbs, and he’s coming off a massive opener. Gibbs carried 29 times for a career-high 156 yards and two touchdowns against the Saints, making him the early favorite in the Offensive Player of the Year race. Buffalo gave up 124 rushing yards and two scores to a Texans run game that hasn’t exactly been a force in recent years, so the Bills have to clean that up fast or risk getting gashed again.
The interior matters here, especially for Ed Oliver and Deone Walker, both of whom posted PFF run defense grades below 50 in Week 1. Their job is to hold ground, occupy space, and let the linebackers clean up behind them.
Gibbs is at his best when defenses don’t get hands on him early. Last season, he was one of the league’s most efficient runners, but he was below average in yards after contact per attempt.
If Buffalo can make him work for every inch and cut off the explosive stuff, it can force Detroit into tougher situations.
And if the Bills do get Detroit behind the sticks, the next step is simple: make Jared Goff uncomfortable. Goff is at his best when he can sit in a clean pocket and operate on time.
When pressure arrives, the picture changes. In Week 1, he posted a 26.67% success rate when pressured, well below league average, and his lack of athleticism becomes much more visible when he has to improvise.
Greg Rousseau sits at the center of that challenge for Buffalo. He led the Bills with seven pressures in Week 1 and will get a favorable matchup against Lions rookie right tackle Blake Miller, who can be beaten by quick rush moves.
Buffalo doesn’t have to blitz all night to get to Goff, but the front has to win its individual battles. If Goff gets a clean pocket for most of the night, the Bills could be in trouble.
In Other News...
Josh Allen Had Bills Fans Doing A Double Take On The Sideline
The Bills first regular-season game at the new Highmark Stadium already had the feel of an event, with Buffalo coming in at 1-0 after its win over the Texans and welcoming the Lions to the teams fresh home. But one sideline moment quickly drew attention when Josh Allen was spotted using smelling salts, a sight that sent fans doing a double take during an otherwise high-profile night for the franchise.
Allen later shed a little light on his game-day habits, describing a pregame routine that includes vomiting, listening to music, and drinking water. It is a reminder that even the most accomplished quarterbacks can have rituals that are anything but ordinary, and in Buffalo, every small detail around Allen tends to get magnified when the spotlight is this bright. [Read more 🡒]
Bills Passing Game Takes A Hit With DJ Moore Suddenly Out
A promising afternoon for Buffalos passing game took a sharp turn late in the second quarter when DJ Moore went down with a shoulder injury while trying to haul in a diving catch against the Detroit Lions. He was taken to the locker room for X-rays, and the Bills initially listed him as questionable before ruling him out after halftime.
For a team that had been leaning on Moore as part of its aerial rhythm, the timing could hardly have been worse. His status leaves Buffalo waiting for answers on how serious the injury is, and the bigger concern now is how the passing game will adjust if he has to miss more time. [Read more 🡒]
Josh Allen Was Furious Over How Bills Teammates Family Tragedy Went Public
The Bills spent the summer trying to navigate one of the hardest kinds of news an NFL locker room can face, with Ed Oliver mourning the death of his two-year-old son after the child was found unresponsive in a swimming pool near Houston in June. The Harris County Sheriff's Office investigated the incident, found no criminal findings and closed the case in August, while Buffalo publicly offered condolences and tried to keep the focus on support rather than details.
Josh Allen still made clear how upset he was with the way the tragedy became public. Speaking to the media, the Bills quarterback thanked the people who respected the familys privacy and criticized those who leaked the information before the family had a chance to process it. For a team that has had to rally around Oliver, the episode served as another reminder of how quickly personal grief can spill into the spotlight. [Read more 🡒]