The AFC playoff picture has a whole new look this year-and not just because some familiar faces are missing. For the better part of the last half-decade, the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC usually ran through Kansas City, with the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens right there in the mix. But as we head into the final stretch of the regular season, the conference has flipped on its head.
The Chiefs, once perennial postseason fixtures, are already out of the playoff hunt. The Ravens?
Clinging to hope but far from guaranteed a spot. That leaves the Bills as the lone holdover from the AFC’s recent power trio-but even their position feels anything but secure.
Buffalo isn’t just trying to get in. They’re trying to avoid a nightmare scenario that could derail their playoff hopes before they even get started. And with three weeks left in the regular season, that nightmare has a name: the Houston Texans.
Here’s why.
The Bills’ Kryptonite: Pressure on Josh Allen
All season long, the formula for slowing down Buffalo has been pretty straightforward-pressure Josh Allen. When Allen has time in the pocket, he’s a problem for any defense. But when the pass rush gets home, his decision-making gets tested, and the offense starts to sputter.
No team exposed that more this season than the Texans.
In their regular-season meeting, Houston’s defensive front overwhelmed the Bills’ protection schemes. Allen was sacked eight times and picked off twice. The Bills managed just 19 points that game-not nearly enough when your franchise quarterback is under siege from start to finish.
And here’s the kicker: that version of the Texans wasn’t even at full strength. CJ Stroud, their star rookie quarterback, didn’t play.
Davis Mills stepped in and held his own, but there’s no question Houston is a different team with Stroud under center. If they meet again in the postseason, Buffalo could be staring down an even more dangerous version of the team that already gave them fits.
A First-Round Rematch on the Horizon?
Right now, the Bills and Texans sit in the sixth and seventh seeds, respectively. That positioning would keep them from meeting in the first round-at least as things currently stand. But the AFC standings are tight, and a lot can change in three weeks.
If either team manages to win its division, it could vault into a top-four seed, opening the door for a first-round showdown. And between the two, the Texans might have the cleaner path. Their remaining schedule (Raiders, Chargers, Colts) is a touch more favorable than the Jaguars’ (Broncos, Colts, Titans), giving Houston a real shot to leapfrog into the AFC South crown.
The Bills, meanwhile, are in a tougher spot. While they split their season series with the Patriots, New England holds the tiebreaker and a lead that looks just out of reach with time running out.
According to current projections, there’s about a 15% chance that Buffalo and Houston square off in the opening round. That might not sound high, but it’s the second-most likely scenario for the Bills. And given what happened in their last meeting, it’s one that should concern Buffalo fans.
High Ceiling, But a Low Floor
When the Bills are firing on all cylinders, they can hang with anyone. Allen’s arm talent, combined with the explosiveness of their offense, gives them a puncher’s chance in any matchup. But when a defense can disrupt their rhythm-especially by collapsing the pocket-Buffalo becomes vulnerable.
That’s what makes a potential rematch with Houston so tricky. The Texans have the kind of defensive front that can throw Allen off his game, and if Stroud is back in the mix, Houston’s offense could be a handful for a Bills defense that’s had its ups and downs.
The Final Stretch
Buffalo is in the driver’s seat when it comes to making the playoffs. Barring a collapse, they’re going to be there. But how the final three weeks shake out will determine whether they’re walking into the postseason with momentum-or walking into the same buzzsaw that nearly took them out earlier this year.
The Texans have already shown they can make life miserable for the Bills. And if the seeding lines up just right, we could see that matchup again-only this time, with everything on the line.