The Bills have a chance to make an early statement in the AFC East on Sunday, and the market is leaning their way. Buffalo brings a 3-0 record into a 1 p.m. ET home matchup with the 1-2 Patriots, with Josh Allen, James Cook and Gregory Rousseau all giving New England plenty to worry about.
Allen has already thrown five touchdown passes and added six rushing scores, while Cook has piled up 346 rushing yards. On the other side, Drake Maye has six interceptions in three games, and reports of shoulder discomfort only add to the pressure on an offense still looking for answers.
That setup is showing up clearly on Polymarket. Buffalo is priced as the favorite on the board, with the Bills at -6.5 for 53¢ and the Patriots at +6.5 for 48¢. The total is lined at 48.5, with the over at 52¢ and the under at 49¢.
The quarterback props tell the same story. Allen’s touchdown line sits at 1.5, with the over priced at 59¢ and the under at 98¢.
His attempts line is 31.5, with the over at 97¢ and the under at 99¢. He is also listed at 19.5 completions, with the over at 54¢, and 224.5 passing yards, with the over at 65¢.
Maye’s board is a little different, but it still reflects a passing game that may have to work uphill. His touchdown line is also 1.5, with the over at 42¢ and the under at 97¢.
His attempts line is 27.5, with the over at 97¢ and the under at 99¢. He is at 19.5 completions with the over at 54¢, and 224.5 yards with the over at 58¢.
Dimers’ simulation leans Buffalo as well, giving the Bills a 71.5% chance to win and projecting a 27-21 final. The model likes Allen’s ability to extend plays when passing lanes close, and it points to Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir as outlets that can keep drives alive. Even so, the projection comes up just short of Polymarket’s spread, which makes the cover less certain than the straight-up result.
The strongest individual play in the model is Allen to score a touchdown. Dimers gives that outcome a 54.9% probability and shows a 2.6-percentage-point edge at -110. Allen scored twice on 1-yard runs in his latest outing, and those touchdowns pushed him to 85 career rushing touchdowns, including 5 against the Patroits.
The projection tables also point to Buffalo production on the ground and through the air. James Cook is projected for 91 rushing yards, with Allen at 36 and Ty Johnson at 15.
On the Patriots’ side, R. Stevenson is projected for 37 rushing yards, D.
Maye for 30 and T. Henderson for 40.
Receiving projections for New England include M. Hollins at 50 yards, R.
Doubs at 46, H. Henry at 37, D.
Douglas at 35 and R. Stevenson at 22.
For Buffalo, D. Kincaid is projected for 55, D.
Moore for 54, K. Shakir for 44, K.
Coleman for 20 and D. Knox for 16.
For now, the board says Buffalo is the side to watch, and Allen’s touchdown chances stand out as the cleanest angle attached to the game. Final injury updates and the price on the board will shape how traders approach it, but the Bills are clearly carrying the stronger market support into Sunday.
In Other News...
Bills Let Another AFC East Game Slip Away For One Reason
The Bills had enough offense to stay in the fight with New England, but it still came down to a familiar kind of AFC East frustration. James Cook and Josh Allen both helped Buffalo move the ball and put points on the board, yet the back-and-forth game never quite tilted the Bills way as the Patriots kept finding answers.
Drake Mayes night mixed big throws with turnovers, but New England still came up with the plays that mattered most, including touchdowns from Romeo Doubs and Efton Chism III. Chisms late scoring catch helped seal the Patriots 29-26 win, leaving Buffalo with another divisional loss and another reminder that close games in this rivalry keep slipping out of reach. [Read more 🡒]
Bills Loss To Patriots Turns On One Infuriating Sequence
A jarring sideline exchange helped flip the flow of a tight game in New England, and the Bills were the ones who benefited in the moment. Mike Vrabel was hit with a 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty after using profanity toward an official, and the flag extended a Buffalo drive that ended with a game-tying touchdown before halftime.
From there, though, the Patriots regrouped and finished with a 29-26 win, powered by Drake Mayes three-touchdown afternoon and a game ball from Vrabel. The penalty became one of the afternoons most talked-about sequences, and both Vrabel and official Bill Vinovich addressed it after the game, leaving Buffalo with plenty to wonder about on a day when a small flashpoint carried outsized weight. [Read more 🡒]
Bills Secondary Concerns Just Got Harder To Ignore After Patriots Loss
The Bills secondary left little room for comfort in the loss to New England, and Maxwell Hairston had a difficult afternoon trying to keep pace with Romeo Doubs. Hairston was beaten for two touchdown catches, a reminder of how quickly coverage issues can swing a game when Buffalo is already dealing with injuries and a thin defensive backfield.
Josh Allens late interception only added to the frustration, even with Keon Coleman giving the offense a bright spot by finishing with 116 receiving yards and a touchdown. The bigger concern for Buffalo is that the defensive questions did not just linger after the defeat, they showed up in moments that mattered most, and now they sit there for everyone to see. [Read more 🡒]