Thursday night brings a clean, high-voltage setup in Buffalo: two 1-0 teams, a short week, and a Bills offense that already flashed serious punch in Week 1. Josh Allen is coming off a 334-yard, four-touchdown performance in Buffalo’s 36-31 win over Houston, and now he gets the first regular-season game at the new Highmark Stadium. Detroit, meanwhile, had to go to overtime to get past New Orleans 31-30 before making the trip east.
The injury report adds a few more layers for anyone watching the market. Detroit guards Christian Mahogany and tackle Blake Miller did not practice, while cornerback D.J.
Reed and guard Juice Scruggs were limited. Buffalo listed linebacker Terrel Bernard and safety Cole Bishop as limited, with Bradley Chubb practicing in full.
Dimers’ latest simulations lean toward the home team, giving Buffalo a 66.2% chance to win and projecting a 29-24 Bills victory. The model has Allen at 252 passing yards and another 34 on the ground.
Detroit still has plenty to work with through Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown, but the Bills’ home-field edge and Allen’s ability to extend drives give Buffalo a clear route to 2-0.
The best bet play is Bills -5.5, even with Detroit’s offense capable of making things uncomfortable. The Lions’ overtime win creates an awkward turnaround, and a betting trend circulating ahead of the game says teams playing on the road on Thursday night immediately after an overtime game are 3-17 ATS.
Another broader trend has teams on short rest after overtime going 24-49-3 ATS over a 20-year sample when their opponent didn’t play overtime. Buffalo also gets to attack a Detroit defense that gave up 469 yards last week, including 378 through the air.
On the prop side, Jahmyr Gibbs leads the anytime touchdown probabilities at 71.5%, followed by James Cook at 55.0% and Josh Allen at 49.1%. Amon-Ra St. Brown sits at 42.2%, while Dalton Kincaid is at 31.5%, Jameson Williams at 30.9%, Sam LaPorta at 28.4% and Khalil Shakir at 26.4%.
The quarterback projections have Jared Goff at 266 passing yards and Allen at 252. On the ground, Gibbs is projected for 93 rushing yards, with James Cook at 86 and Allen at 34.
In the passing game, Amon-Ra St. Brown is projected for 85 receiving yards, Jameson Williams for 63, LaPorta for 48, and Gibbs for 33.
For Buffalo, DJ Moore is projected for 66 receiving yards, followed by Dalton Kincaid at 53, Khalil Shakir at 50, James Cook at 20 and Josh Palmer at 19.
With moneyline, spread, total and first-half positions all in play, Bills-Lions gives traders plenty of angles to follow as Buffalo tries to open the new building with a win.
In Other News...
Josh Allen Had Bills Fans Doing A Double Take On The Sideline
The Bills first regular-season game at their new Highmark Stadium already had the usual opening-day buzz, but Josh Allen added a moment that had fans doing a double take on the sideline. During the game against the Detroit Lions, the Buffalo quarterback was seen using smelling salts, a brief oddity in an afternoon that also carried the weight of a new era for the franchise.
Allen later gave reporters a peek at a pregame routine that is as unusual as it is specific, with vomiting, music and water all part of the mix. Coming in at 1-0 after the recent win over the Houston Texans, Buffalo had every reason to feel good about the start, even if its quarterback kept reminding everyone that his game-day preparation is still a little different from most. [Read more 🡒]
Josh Allen Played Through A Scare Before Buffalo's Biggest Win Yet
Josh Allen wasnt at full strength Sunday, but the Bills hardly looked like a team dealing with uncertainty at quarterback. Playing through an illness, Allen still powered Buffalo to a 41-31 win over the Lions and accounted for five touchdowns, while the offense came out humming with scores on its first four possessions. For a team trying to keep building momentum, it was the kind of complete early statement that can change the tone of a season.
Joe Brady praised Allens effort and the way Buffalo kept attacking, even as the game brought its own complications. Wide receiver D.J. Moore went down with a shoulder injury, yet the offense kept rolling and found answers in a high-scoring matchup that tested depth as much as execution. The bigger question now is whether the Bills can carry that level of pace and efficiency forward if Allen is managing anything more serious than a one-game scare. [Read more 🡒]
Bills Passing Game Takes A Hit With DJ Moore Suddenly Out
Buffalos passing game got a jolt it did not need late in the first half against Detroit, when DJ Moore went down with a shoulder injury while laying out for a diving catch. He was taken to the locker room for X-rays, and the Bills initially listed him as questionable before ruling him out after halftime.
For a team trying to keep its offense moving, losing a receiver in that spot changes the feel of the game immediately. It leaves Buffalo waiting on word about the shoulder, while also forcing the staff to adjust on the fly against a Lions defense that had already seen enough of Moore to know how much of a factor he can be when he is on the field. [Read more 🡒]