The NFL season is almost here, and the race lines are already taking shape. This year’s division markets point to a league with plenty of balance, and that starts with Buffalo sitting atop the board as the biggest favorite to win any division at -136, which comes out to an implied probability of 57.63%.
That number stands out because the Bills are coming off a season in which they lost the AFC East crown to the New England Patriots. Still, the market is leaning hard toward Buffalo, while New England is right behind at +125 as it tries to make it two straight. The Patriots’ path looks tougher this time around, especially with a first-place schedule after last season’s historically easy slate.
The AFC North looks much less settled. Baltimore and Cincinnati both had uneven years, and Pittsburgh took advantage to grab the division.
Even so, the Steelers are not being priced as the likeliest repeat winner, sitting at +510. The betting picture suggests this is mostly a two-team fight, with Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow needing to stay healthy if their teams are going to push for the title.
Kansas City is another team trying to reclaim familiar territory. The Chiefs’ run of nine straight division championships ended last season, a year in which just about everything went sideways, including Patrick Mahomes missing time with injury. Oddsmakers still see them as the favorite to take the division back at +160, but the Broncos are lurking at +225 after their own title run, and the Chargers are expected to be the tougher challenge for Kansas City.
In the AFC South, Houston is back in the favorite’s chair even though Jacksonville won the division last year at 13-4. Indianapolis is the wildcard in the group after starting fast last season before dropping seven straight to finish 8-9. Tennessee, meanwhile, is being treated as a likely afterthought.
The NFC East carries its own familiar tension. Philadelphia broke through last year by winning back-to-back division titles, something the division had not seen before.
Now the Eagles are favored to make it three in a row at +120. Dallas, though, is drawing plenty of support from sharp bettors, and its odds have moved from +235 to +205 since the preseason opened.
Detroit enters the NFC North with momentum in the market, even after missing the playoffs at 9-8 last season. All four teams in the division finished with winning records, and the Lions now have the easiest schedule in the NFL based on opponents’ projected win totals. Chicago, last year’s division champion, is listed third among the contenders at +305.
The NFC West might be the most layered division of the bunch. The Rams are the favorites both to win the division and to come out of the NFC, while the defending Super Bowl champions are right behind them at +205. San Francisco is also firmly in the mix, helped by having the easiest schedule in the division, and Arizona owns the longest division odds among all 32 teams.
Then there’s the NFC South, where the board is packed tight enough to make every team feel live. Carolina is the defending champion, Tampa Bay has the best quarterback, New Orleans brings a young roster that finished last season strong, and Atlanta has the kind of headliners that can swing a race, with Bijan Robinson and Drake London leading the way. It adds up to one of the most open division battles on the board.
All odds are via DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change.
In Other News...
Josh Allens Top Target Suddenly Puts Buffalos Week 1 Stability In Doubt
Khalil Shakirs late-August absence has become one of the more notable storylines around Buffalos receiver room as the Bills work through the final stretch before their season opener against the Texans. Shakir has missed recent practices because of an undisclosed injury, and while the team has been careful not to spell out the issue, the tone around his status remains more reassuring than alarming.
For a passing game that leans on timing and trust, any missed reps from Josh Allens top target are worth watching this time of year. Buffalo still sounds optimistic Shakir will be available for Week 1, and the wider receiver outlook got a small lift with DJ Moore also expected to be ready after his own preseason injury scare. Still, with the opener approaching, the Bills are leaving themselves a little less certainty than they probably wanted. [Read more 🡒]
Josh Allen Just Gave Bills Fans A New Way To Join In
Josh Allen turned a sideline accessory into something with a much bigger purpose this week, teaming up with children at Golisano Children's Hospital of Buffalo to create eight one-of-a-kind Bills hats. Each design blends Allens hand-drawn logo with artwork from the kids, giving the project a personal touch that fits the quarterbacks long-running connection to the Buffalo community.
The hats will show up on Allen before each of the Bills eight regular-season home games, and fans can buy them as well, with proceeds going to the Patricia Allen Fund at the hospital. It is part of his partnership with New Era and a continuation of the charitable effort he started last season, a reminder that for Allen, the football season in Buffalo can still make room for something bigger than football. [Read more 🡒]
Josh Allen And Joe Brady Just Raised The Stakes In Buffalo
Three NFL.com writers all picked the Bills to win Super Bowl LXI, even if they could not agree on who would be waiting on the other sideline. That kind of preseason confidence is easy to dismiss in August, but it does speak to how much belief surrounds Buffalo after the front office went out and traded for D.J. Moore to give Josh Allen another proven target.
The bigger shift is on the sideline, where the 2026 season opens with Joe Brady in charge after Sean McDermott was fired and promoted out of the job. Allen has piled up the kind of career numbers that keep him in the leagues elite conversation, but he still has not gotten to the Super Bowl, which is why the pressure in Buffalo feels a little sharper now, and a little more real. [Read more 🡒]