With Week 16 in the books, the AFC playoff picture is starting to come into focus - and for the Buffalo Bills, the road to Super Bowl LX is beginning to take shape. But make no mistake: while the path may no longer run through the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, or Lamar Jackson (at least not early), this is far from a smooth ride for Buffalo.
The Road Starts on the Road
The Bills are staring down a likely Wild Card berth, and unless the New England Patriots stumble in their final two games - and Buffalo runs the table - they’ll be taking their playoff show on the road. That’s not ideal for a team that hasn’t won a road playoff game since 1993. Yes, it’s been that long.
Still, there’s reason to believe this team can flip the script. Based on current projections, Buffalo is trending toward the 5-seed, with a 53% probability of landing there. That would likely send them to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers, who are all but locked into the 4-seed with a 98% chance of winning their division.
A Familiar Foe Awaits
If that matchup holds, it’ll be a rematch of Buffalo’s Week 13 trip to Acrisure Stadium - a game the Bills dominated from start to finish, walking away with a 26-7 win. In that one, Buffalo ran wild, racking up 249 rushing yards - the most ever by a visiting team in that stadium. It was a physical, ground-and-pound performance that left little doubt about who controlled the trenches.
That kind of dominance on the ground could be the key again, especially considering both teams lean heavily on their run games and short passing attacks. Neither side is built to stretch the field vertically, so this one could come down to which team can control the line of scrimmage - and which defense can hold up against the run.
Steelers Showing Signs of Life
While Buffalo has the recent head-to-head edge, Pittsburgh isn’t limping into the postseason. Since that Week 13 loss, the Steelers haven’t dropped a game. They’re gaining momentum at the right time, and last week’s performance - holding the Lions to just 15 rushing yards - was a statement from a defense that’s rounding into form.
That said, Buffalo’s defense has shown some cracks, particularly against the run. In their most recent outing, they gave up 160 yards on the ground to Cleveland - and that was with Browns running back Quinshon Judkins exiting early due to a brutal leg injury. That’s a red flag heading into a potential playoff matchup with a Steelers team that’s more than happy to grind things out.
Health, Momentum, and the Unknown
It’s worth noting that both teams have seen their rosters shift since that Week 13 clash. Some key players have returned, others have gone down, and that always adds a layer of unpredictability to a postseason rematch. What’s clear is that neither team will look exactly the same, and momentum - especially in December and January - is a real factor.
Still, the numbers don’t lie. Buffalo has a 25% chance of falling to the 6-seed, and less than a 10% shot at climbing into the top three. The final playoff picture will hinge on how the AFC East shakes out and how the Chargers finish - L.A. holds a tiebreaker over Buffalo, which could complicate things if records align.
Bottom Line
The Bills may not have to go through Mahomes or Burrow right away, but nothing about this postseason run will be easy. If they’re going to make a serious push toward the Super Bowl, they’ll need to do something they haven’t done in over three decades: win a playoff game on the road.
And if that road runs through Pittsburgh, buckle up. That rematch could be one of the most physical, old-school battles of the Wild Card round.