The Bills are walking into 2026 with a new head coach, a new defensive setup and the same old burden on their shoulders. Buffalo opens Sunday at Houston with Joe Brady taking over for Sean McDermott, Jim Leonhard installing a more aggressive 3-4 defense and Josh Allen still holding the whole operation together. DJ Moore and Bradley Chubb are new to the mix, but the pressure hasn’t changed one bit: this is still a Super Bowl-or-bust team.
Owner Terry Pegula made that clear after McDermott was fired following Buffalo’s 33-30 overtime loss at Denver in the 2025 AFC Divisional Round. The franchise’s championship drought now stands at 32 seasons, dating back to the four straight Super Bowl trips from 1990 to 1993.
Bills fans know the weight of that history better than anybody. With that in mind, here’s how this season could break for Buffalo.
Allen is the one constant, and the easiest place to start is with another MVP run. He already has one AP NFL Most Valuable Player award from the 2024 season, when he threw 28 touchdown passes, ran for 12 more and helped Buffalo go 13-4.
A second one in 2026 wouldn’t be a shock if Brady opens things up even more. Brady keeps the play-calling job he held the last two seasons, when Buffalo’s offense was one of the league’s most efficient units, and Allen has a track record of doing the most with whatever he’s given.
He put Buffalo in position to win in Denver last January even in a game that ended in defeat. Add Moore as a legitimate downfield weapon and keep James Cook rolling, and the numbers can climb again.
“I’m embracing it. I’m understanding it. And I’m meeting it full on.”
Joe Brady, after being introduced as head coach, per AP News
Moore could be the piece that changes the whole passing game. Buffalo sent a 2026 second-round pick to Chicago in March to land him, giving Allen a clear No. 1 target for the first time since Stefon Diggs’ final season with the Bills in 2023.
Moore is listed at 6-foot, 213 pounds and turns 29 this season. He’s not the same burner he was at 22, but he still separates and wins contested catches.
He topped 1,100 receiving yards in four of his first eight NFL seasons, reached 1,364 yards in 2023 and then dropped to 50 catches and 682 yards last year in a rough Chicago offense.
Allen is a different kind of quarterback than the ones Moore played with in Carolina and Chicago, and the early signs from training camp pointed in the right direction. Allen has been seen pushing the ball deep, with Moore tracking it over his shoulder. If that connection clicks, a 1,400-yard season and first-team All-Pro honors are on the table.
Moore sounded ready for the partnership when he arrived. “He’s a field general,” he said of Allen, according to AP News. “You see him out there trying to conduct things, and the way he does it is successful.”
On the other side of the ball, the expectation is a return to form. McDermott’s defenses were elite from 2021 through 2023, finishing first, second and fourth in scoring defense.
But the group slid to 11th in 2024 at 21.6 points per game and 12th in 2025 at 21.5. The January results were just as painful, from the 13-seconds collapse against Kansas City to the late breakdown in Denver that ended last season.
Leonhard, a former Bills safety who spent the last two seasons on Sean Payton’s Denver staff, is bringing a 3-4 that asks the front to attack instead of waiting around. Chubb, who signed a three-year deal after Miami released him, gives Buffalo a proven edge presence.
Leonhard has already pointed to tackling as the biggest issue from last year, per AP News. If the scheme creates more turnovers, the offense holds the ball and the defense gets more favorable field position, Buffalo has a path back into the top three in scoring defense.
And then there’s the biggest prediction of all: a Super Bowl win. Allen is 30 now, and the next three-to-five years are the window.
Pegula said after the McDermott firing that the roster was built to win now. Brady inherits that roster along with Moore and Chubb, and the new Highmark Stadium opens in Week 2 against Detroit.
The regular season has not been Buffalo’s problem - the Bills have made the playoffs in seven straight years and won a postseason game in six of them. The hurdle has always been January.
A more aggressive defense and an offense capable of hanging 30 points on somebody gives Buffalo its best chance in a long time. Sunday in Houston begins the evaluation. February would be the payoff.
In Other News...
Bills Face A Texans Problem That Could Decide Their Opener
Houstons defense gave Buffalo a look last season that is hard to ignore heading into the opener. The Texans sent extra rushers at one of the lowest rates in the league, yet still found ways to get after quarterbacks, including Josh Allen in a Week 12 meeting when Buffalo saw pressure even though the blitz came sparingly. For a Bills offense that wants to keep Allen upright and in rhythm, that kind of pressure profile is the kind of problem that can shape a game plan before the first snap.
James Cook looms as a key answer because the Bills may need more than protection schemes and quick throws to keep Houston honest. If the Texans can create disruption without overcommitting, Buffalo will have to lean on the run game to slow the rush and open up space for everything else. It is the sort of matchup detail that can quietly decide an opener, especially against a defense that has already shown it can make life uncomfortable without sending the house. [Read more 🡒]
Mike Tomlin Just Created A Bills What-If Fans Will Notice
Mike Tomlins first public comments since parting ways with the Steelers in January had a ripple effect that Bills fans were bound to notice. After 19 seasons in Pittsburgh, the longtime head coach said in a recent interview that he is open to getting back into the NFL if the right opportunity comes along, and he also spoke glowingly about Josh Allen while reflecting on his time away from the sideline.
For Buffalo, it is the kind of what-if that naturally lingers around a franchise built around a franchise quarterback and high expectations. Tomlin did not sound eager to rush into anything, but he made it clear he still sees coaching as a real possibility, which only adds another layer to a future that already has Bills fans thinking about how long this current window can stay open. [Read more 🡒]
Bills Captain Picks Say A Lot About Buffalos 2026 Leadership Plan
The Bills have settled on their leadership core for the 2026 season, and the group says plenty about how the locker room is being shaped around both continuity and change. Josh Allen and Terrel Bernard are back in their familiar roles as captains, while Dawson Knox, Bradley Chubb, Reid Ferguson and Sam Franklin Jr. round out a group that mixes established voices with a few new faces.
For Knox, it is his first time wearing the captain label, a notable step for a player who has long been part of the team's identity on offense. Allen, meanwhile, keeps extending one of the more durable captaincy runs on the roster, reaching his eighth, and the mix of returning leaders and first-time additions suggests the Bills are leaning on experience while widening the circle of responsibility heading into the new season. [Read more 🡒]