The Bills have become almost predictable in the Josh Allen years: pile up wins, get Allen playing like an MVP, and then run into postseason heartbreak. Buffalo did it again last season, finishing 12-5 before falling to the Denver Broncos in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs.
That loss carried extra sting. It was the third straight postseason defeat by three points, and the third overtime playoff loss in the Allen era.
After that, management made a change, firing head coach Sean McDermott and promoting offensive coordinator Joe Brady to head coach. The question now is whether that move is enough to finally push Buffalo past the line it keeps bumping into.
Oddsmakers still expect another strong regular season. The Bills’ win total is 10.5 for 2026, with the OVER listed at -120 odds.
That gives Buffalo an implied 54.55% chance of finishing 11-6 or better. And the track record backs up the confidence: the Bills have hit 11 or more wins in six straight seasons.
The last time they fell short was 2019, when they went 10-6 before the league moved to a 17-game schedule.
Buffalo’s identity should look familiar. The offense is still built around the run game, and last season no team rushed for more yards than the Bills. James Cook and Allen remain a punishing tandem, and even with guard David Edwards gone in the offseason, Buffalo should again field one of the league’s best rushing attacks.
Allen also has a new receiving option in DJ Moore, who arrived from the Chicago Bears this offseason. That addition gives Allen another clear target and should create more room for Khalil Shakir in the slot.
On the other side of the ball, the defense is the biggest question. The Bills are moving to a 3-4 this season, and it may take some time for the personnel to settle into the new system. There is at least one important boost: Ed Oliver is back healthy, and that should matter a lot along the defensive line.
Buffalo also catches a break with the schedule. Because the Bills finished second to the Patriots in the AFC East last year, they landed the 14th-easiest schedule based on opponents’ projected win totals.
All told, the number still points in the same direction. There’s no real reason to doubt Buffalo reaches 11 wins again, which would make it seven straight seasons at that level.
In Other News...
Panthers Just Saw An Early Warning Sign In Buffalo
Buffalos new Highmark Stadium got its first NFL game on natural grass on Aug. 15, and the early read on the field was mixed. Some players came away with complaints about the surface, while others said it was mostly playable, but the debut still gave the Bills and anyone paying attention a useful first look at how the stadiums grass might hold up under live game conditions.
The turf is Kentucky Bluegrass grown in New Jersey and was installed in October 2025, with heating and snowmelt systems built in to help Buffalo deal with winter weather. Even with that setup, there were visible signs of wear during play, which is the kind of thing that will matter more once the calendar turns and the Bills start leaning on the building through the colder months. [Read more 🡒]
Bills Roster Decisions Just Sent A Clear Message About Depth Battles
The Bills kept tinkering with the bottom of the roster this week, and the moves around the fullback spot showed how fluid things still are as camp and preseason sorting continues. Buffalo has been adjusting to the departure of Reggie Gilliam, and the latest shuffle gave the team another look at a familiar name while also trimming a rookie who had been trying to carve out a role.
Otis Reese is back in the building for what is now his third stint with the Bills in less than a year, a reminder of how much the team has leaned on familiarity while it keeps evaluating depth. The corresponding move sent Jackson Acker out the door, leaving Buffalo still searching for the right fit as it sorts through a position that has become one of the quieter battles on the roster. [Read more 🡒]
Bills Face A Tough Backfield Decision After Another Preseason Flash
With the Bills heading into their second preseason game against the Browns, the running back picture is starting to come into focus, and its a crowded one. Frank Gore Jr. has continued to make a case for himself with strong preseason work, but Buffalo is also sorting through a room that already has James Cook, Ray Davis and Ty Johnson holding down the top spots, which makes every extra carry matter a little less than it would on a thinner roster.
Ian Wheelers emergence only adds to the logjam, and that leaves Gore in an awkward spot for a player who has done plenty to earn attention. Buffalo still has time before the final 53-man cutdown, but the bigger question may not be whether Gore can keep flashing, it may be whether the Bills can turn that depth into something useful if his value keeps drawing notice. [Read more 🡒]