Drake Maye’s sharp decline has a clear turning point, and it came against Buffalo.
After the Patriots’ Week 15 meeting with the Bills last season, Maye has looked like a different quarterback. Buffalo erased a 24-7 deficit in that game and won 35-31 in Foxboro, and the split before and after that contest is dramatic enough to jump off the page.
In the 13 games before hosting the Bills in Week 15 last year, plus the first half of that matchup, Maye was operating at a high level. Over that stretch, he completed 71.8% of his passes, averaged 8.87 yards per attempt, threw 23 touchdowns against six interceptions, posted a 111.9 passer rating and took 2.52 sacks per game.
He was rolling in the first half against Buffalo, too, going 9-of-11 for 108 yards, good for 9.8 yards per attempt, with no touchdowns or interceptions.
Then the second half happened.
From that point on, entering Week 4 this season, the numbers have moved in the opposite direction. In the second half against Buffalo, Maye went 5-of-12 for 47 yards, averaged 3.9 yards per attempt, and finished without a touchdown and with one interception. Since that game, his EPA per play has fallen from a massive +0.286 before facing the Bills at home in Week 15 to +0.068 over the stretch that followed.
That earlier number was elite territory. For context, Josh Allen’s EPA per play in his 2024 MVP season was +0.260. The drop-off since then has been steep enough to land in a very different neighborhood, closer to rookie-year Bo Nix and 2024 Geno Smith, according to nflverse data.
The defenses Maye has seen along the way have not exactly been soft, either. In the playoffs, he ran into the Chargers, Texans, Broncos and Seahawks, with each defense ranking highly in regular-season EPA per play allowed. Before that postseason run, his final three regular-season games of 2025 came against the Ravens, Jets and Dolphins, and this season he has already seen the Jaguars, Seahawks and Steelers.
Buffalo’s approach in that Week 15 game may also have played a role in how things changed. According to the Patriots’ own website, the Bills used single-high safety on 42.9% of Maye’s drop backs in the first half before flipping to two-high on 86.7% in the second half.
That mattered because Maye’s issues against two-high looks have persisted. Through the rest of the regular season and the playoffs, his passer rating was 89.2 against two-high compared with 110.9 against single-high. This season, he still has a strong 9.48 yards per attempt against two-high alignments, but four of his six interceptions have come against those looks.
Maye’s downward trend has been real, and it traces back to that second half against Buffalo. Whether it keeps going will be part of the story Sunday at the new Highmark Stadium.
In Other News...
Jessica Pegula Just Raised A New Bills Ownership Question
Jessica Pegulas latest comments offered a rare glimpse into how the Pegula family may be thinking about its future around the Bills, and it came at a time when the franchises long-term ownership picture naturally draws attention. The world No. 3 in tennis told CNBC she could see herself helping with the organization after her playing career, which is notable given how little public clarity there has been about what role, if any, she might take on beyond her current athletic path.
Her remarks also landed against the backdrop of her mother Kim Pegulas health issues, a factor that has shaped how fans think about the familys day-to-day involvement with the team. Jessica Pegula also said the family does not intend to sell its teams despite the soaring valuations around pro sports, leaving the bigger question less about ownership changing hands and more about how the next chapter inside the Pegula operation might eventually be organized. [Read more 🡒]
Bills May Have A Tough James Cook Decision Coming
James Cook has settled in as one of the more important pieces of Buffalos offense, and his recent play has only sharpened the attention around his long-term future. The Bills still have him under contract through 2029, which gives the team plenty of control on paper, but the market for running backs keeps shifting and his current deal sits 13th among players at his position.
Cooks performance has made him a logical candidate for a future raise, and that creates the kind of decision front offices try to get ahead of before it becomes urgent. Buffalo may eventually have to weigh whether an extension now is the cleaner path to keeping him around, especially if his camp starts looking at the growing salaries elsewhere in the league. [Read more 🡒]
Bills Patriots Opener Comes With A Revenge Twist Fans Will Notice
The Bills first AFC East test of the season arrives in Week 4, when New England comes to Buffalo for a matchup that carries a little extra edge. It is the kind of early divisional game that usually tells you something about both teams, and this one comes with a familiar subplot for Bills fans: the Patriots roster now includes several players who once wore Buffalo colors, giving the opener a revenge-game feel before the division race even gets rolling.
Reggie Gilliam, Mack Hollins, DaQuan Jones, Mitch Wishnowsky and Greg Van Roten have all spent time with the Bills, and each brings a different layer of familiarity to the matchup. Van Roten is on injured reserve and wont be available, but the presence of so many former Bills in a Patriots uniform adds another wrinkle to a game Buffalo already views as must-watch. In the AFC East, the margins are usually thin enough without all the added history. [Read more 🡒]