The Buffalo Bills didn’t just tip their hand when they kept four tight ends and five receivers on their initial 53-man roster after the preseason. They showed exactly where this offense wanted to go: bigger bodies, more flexible looks, and a heavier dose of personnel packages that can stress a defense in more than one way.
That plan has been on display through two weeks, and it hasn’t stopped at the familiar two-tight-end setup. Buffalo has leaned hard into 13 personnel - three tight ends on the field - and the Bills have been one of the league leaders in doing it. Through two games, only the Rams have used it more, with Los Angeles at 36.4% and Buffalo right behind at 33.8%.
That matters because 13 personnel isn’t supposed to be the sexy part of an offense. It’s the grouping that usually screams run. But the Bills have turned it into something much more dangerous than that, especially with Dalton Kincaid in the mix.
Kincaid’s added bulk appears to be doing exactly what Buffalo hoped. The extra strength, particularly around his knee, is meant to help his durability.
Just as important, it’s giving him a better chance to hold up as a blocker and actually move people. Through the first two weeks, that improvement has shown up clearly.
There’s another wrinkle here too, and Max Toscano pointed it out on Twitter/X: for the first three seasons of his NFL career, Kincaid was one of the clearest tells in the league that a pass was coming. That’s changed in a big way.
Through two games, when the Bills have lined up in 13 personnel with Kincaid on the field, they’ve split run and pass calls exactly 50-50. That balance is the point. It keeps defenses from sitting on one answer.
Buffalo also showed how useful that can be in the second half of its Week 2 win over the Lions, when DJ Moore’s injury pushed the Bills into more adaptable game-planning on the fly. With their No. 1 wideout off the field and a sizable lead in hand, they were able to use plenty of 13 personnel looks to stay committed to the ground game while still keeping the defense honest.
That’s the larger league-wide story here. As analytics has pushed offenses to hunt efficiency, teams have realized they can get real value throwing the ball from heavy personnel.
Why? Because defenses feel compelled to match with bigger bodies, and that can create opportunities in the passing game.
The Rams are the clearest example. Their 331 plays from 13 personnel produced a much better Expected Points Added per drop back than the Packers, who finished as the No.
1 EPA per drop back offense in 2025 on all plays. The sample size caveat matters, sure, but the number still jumps off the page.
Los Angeles also used 13 personnel on 30.4% of its snaps last season, which was the first time in at least four years that any NFL team used the three-tight-end look on more than 17% of its plays.
A larger study using the nflverse play-by-play database and FTN participation data from 2018 through 2025 paints the same picture. The passing efficiency from 13 personnel stands out compared with the more common tight end groupings.
11 personnel: 60.2% use rate, 70.3% pass rate, +0.002 overall EPA/play, +0.020 EPA/dropback, -0.041 EPA/run
12 personnel: 19.7% use rate, 51.1% pass rate, +0.005 overall EPA/play, +0.093 EPA/dropback, -0.086 EPA/run
13 personnel: 3.6% use rate, 39.7% pass rate, -0.005 overall EPA/play, +0.122 EPA/dropback, -0.088 EPA/run
Other groupings made up the remaining 16.7% of offensive snaps in the sample.
The run-game numbers are the catch. Offenses are less efficient running the ball from 13 personnel.
But that’s also what makes the package so tricky. Just putting three tight ends on the field tends to bring in larger defenders who are less comfortable in coverage, and that can open the door to a pass.
For a team like Buffalo, with at least one tight end who can threaten defenses as a receiver without becoming a liability as a blocker, 13 personnel has become a real efficiency weapon. It doesn’t give away the call. And that, more than anything, is the point.
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