The latest round of NBA projections has not exactly turned the Nets into a feel-good story, but the temperature has come down a bit.
That’s a shift worth noting after ESPN recently pegged Brooklyn for 18 wins, a number that would have been two fewer than last season’s tankathon and the third worst mark in franchise history. This time around, an ESPN insiders’ panel slotted the Nets 24th in its three-year futures rankings, a modest climb from 27th a year ago.
Zach Kram’s summary kept the emphasis on where Brooklyn is still lacking. The Nets, he wrote, sit near the top in both the draft and money categories, but beyond the frontcourt pairing of Michael Porter Jr. and new Net Julius Randle, the roster is still short on win-now talent. Brooklyn remains centered on the development of a half-dozen recent first-round picks, and that kind of timeline, Kram noted, makes it difficult to expect many wins in the near term.
Dean Oliver, an ESPN consultant, framed the long view in even starker terms. He pointed out that the Nets are top five in both money and draft for the third straight season, but bottom five in players.
Under normal circumstances, that kind of setup would leave a team about two years from being average or better. But Oliver added that Brooklyn’s low win projections this season suggest the franchise may already have been “two years away from being two years away” back in 2024.
His broader forecast was even harsher. Oliver predicted that the Nets will eventually tire of rebuilding and make an all-in swing for a superstar in one of the next two summers, calling that the natural life cycle for Brooklyn after the franchise sold the farm for Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce in 2013 and landed Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving in 2019.
The panel’s rankings weigh current roster strength, management, draft assets, money and market. On that last point, Brooklyn took a curious hit, falling from No. 7 to No. 11 as a market, though the panel did not offer much explanation for the drop.
The same ESPN report, headlined “ Brooklyn Nets off-season recap and early 2026-27 season preview,” offered a softer edge when it shifted from long-term forecasting to the current roster. Much of that discussion centered on Randle, whose arrival came in what is widely viewed as a salary dump.
Kram described the move as a short-term boost and little else. Trading Claxton brought back the former All-NBA forward, who should help next season because of his availability and floor-raising ability, but does not do much to clear up the Nets’ longer-term picture.
Brian Windhorst offered a similar read. Randle, he wrote, is not talented enough to lead a contender or young enough to guide Brooklyn’s next phase. The veteran forward should help the Nets climb a little in the standings, but using him as a stopgap does not amount to a real plan.
Oliver, though, still found reason to question how much Randle can give even in the immediate term. He pointed to the second half of last season, when Randle’s production fell off.
Oliver cited a plus-2.2 net points per 100 possessions in the first half, then 0.0 in the second half, along with 10 negative games out of 13 in the playoffs. He suggested the decline may have been tied to injury or to his situation in Minnesota, but still said Randle should be solid and make Brooklyn a bit more competitive this season.
The injury note stands out, given that Randle played 79 games.
What was missing from the ESPN season preview was almost as notable as what was included. There was surprisingly little mention of Egor Demin or Mikel Brown Jr., even though both are 20 and expected to play major roles.
Over at SB Nation, Ricky O’Donnell was more bullish on both lottery picks and on Jordi Fernandez. He ranked the Nets 13th out of 15 Eastern Conference teams, but said the skeptics may have gone too far. He also echoed the view that Sean Marks and company made an underrated move in signing Day’Ron Sharpe.
A big part of O’Donnell’s optimism came from Fernandez. He wrote that he trusts the Nets to beat their very low expectations this season, so long as they do not trade Michael Porter Jr. before opening night. Porter, O’Donnell noted, had a career year under Fernandez in Brooklyn last season, one year after Cam Johnson enjoyed similar success.
O’Donnell called Fernandez one of the best young coaches in the game and said the coach has more talent to work with now because of Randle’s arrival. He also pointed to a possible sophomore leap from Egor Demin, a possible upgrade at center with Day’Ron Sharpe taking over for Nic Claxton, and the arrival of rookie guard Mikel Brown Jr. as reasons to like Brooklyn a little more than the early predictions suggest.
Still, the real answer will come soon enough. In a little more than a month, the projections will either look smart or silly.
And the players have their own expectations, too. Ben Saraf has already said he and his teammates expect to make the playoffs, while Porter Jr. thinks 50 is a good round number.
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