The first half of the MLB season has delivered a little bit of everything: a historic two-way force, a surprise contender in Chicago, a crowded race in both leagues and a sport still tilting harder toward young talent, harder throwing and tighter strike zones.
Start with Shohei Ohtani, because the numbers are almost absurd even by his standards. He reached the break with a 1.79 ERA, only four home runs allowed and just two losses.
Over the past 100 years, only one pitcher with at least 14 starts has matched that combination: Greg Maddux in 1995. At the plate, Ohtani has also crushed 22 home runs and posted a .952 OPS, making him the game’s nastiest two-strike pitcher and one of its most dangerous hitters at the same time.
In just half a season, he has already thrown a career high number of 100-mph pitches.
And if that weren’t enough, there’s another arm forcing hitters to live in a world of pure discomfort. Misiorowski averages 100.5 mph on his four-seam fastball, releasing it 7.6 feet from in front of the rubber.
That gives him an average perceived velocity of 102.8 mph, the fastest ever recorded by any pitcher who has thrown at least 250 fastballs in a season. He has thrown 213 pitches this year at 102 mph or faster; every other MLB pitcher combined has thrown 152.
Ohtani has The Miz to deal with if he wants a Cy Young.
The standings are crowded enough that almost everybody can still squint at October. Of the 13 teams that finished last year with losing records, 11 are within four games of a playoff spot.
Five are already in playoff position: the Braves, Marlins, Rays, White Sox and Twins. The White Sox have been the biggest shock of all, going from three straight seasons of 101, 121 and 102 losses to first place in the AL Central and a pace for 85 wins.
There’s also no shortage of long-shot hope. The four teams with the longest active pennant droughts - the Mariners, Pirates, Brewers and Orioles - are still alive in the World Series chase. And in a league where no American League team has ever reached the playoffs in a full season with fewer than the 84 wins of the 1984 Royals, two clubs could still slip in below that line.
The Red Sox have made one of the most dramatic turns of the year. In just 18 days, they went from owning the worst record in baseball to sitting a half-game out of a playoff spot. That leaves only the Royals, Athletics and Angels outside the thick of the race.
The trade deadline and the standings aren’t the only places where the first half has shown something new. The automated ball-strike system has settled into the game without overwhelming it.
Only 2.2 ball/strike calls are being overturned per game, which points to good umpiring, a system that isn’t wrecking the rhythm and a challenge limit that adds a real strategic layer. Fans, too, have taken to the live “reveal” in video game form.
The Twins have been the league’s most active ABS team, with 268 challenges and 151 overturned calls, a 56% success rate that sits above the major league average of 53%. The Pirates, meanwhile, have had the roughest go of it, with the fewest successful challenges at 74 and the worst success rate at 41%.
One of the clearest themes of the season is how much baseball now belongs to younger players. Players 25 and younger are outhitting players 26 and older, .247 to .243, and they also own the edge in slugging and OPS.
Teams are pushing prospects to the majors faster and locking them up earlier, too. There are 10 qualified rookies with an OPS+ of 100 or better, matching 1977 for the most in a season since World War II.
There are also 32 qualified players age 25 and under with an OPS+ of at least 100, the most in 80 years.
That youth movement shows up in contract data as well. Only one free agent last winter signed for more than five years - Dylan Cease, at seven years - while this season six rookies have already signed deals of seven years or more: J.J. Wetherholt, Kevin McGonigle, Konner Griffin, Colt Emerson, Cooper Pratt and Luis Lara.
The game’s offensive shape is changing in smaller ways, too. Runs per game are up 1.6%, while home runs and strikeouts are unchanged. The biggest effect of ABS has been a rise in walks, with the walk rate reaching a 17-year high.
The home run still defines the sport’s winners, though. Since 2020, the six champions have ranked 1, 3, 4, 3, 3 and 2 in home runs.
It has been more than a decade since a team in the bottom half of the league in home runs won the title, dating to the 2015 Royals. This year, the Marlins, Rays, Guardians and Brewers are trying to win in a different way, ranking 24th, 26th, 28th and 29th in homers.
The lack of right-handed thump is another striking wrinkle. The top five hitters by OPS are all left-handed: Yordan Alvarez, Juan Soto, James Wood, Ben Rice and Ohtani. Right-handed hitters are batting .241, down from .246, and only three seasons since 1920 have been worse: 1972, 1968 and 1942, all before the DH.
Pitching trends continue to push in the other direction. Average fastball velocity, including sinkers and four-seamers, is up to 94.5 mph, the sixth straight year of increase.
That’s up from 94.3 last year and a full tick higher than five years ago. But the game is no longer just about heat.
It’s about spin, shaping and sequencing, with fastball usage at 47.0%, down from 47.2% last year and far below the 56.2% mark from 10 years ago, before the seam-tracking boom.
The first half has made one thing clear: baseball is getting younger, faster and more specialized, and the race to October is shaping up to be as crowded as it is unpredictable.
In Other News...
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Red Sox Suddenly Have A Rotation Arm Drawing Trade Interest
The rotation picture in Boston has shifted enough that clubs around the league are watching closely, and the Red Sox could find themselves with a movable arm if the right offer comes along. Patrick Sandoval has re-entered the mix after a long injury absence, and his return gives Boston another healthy starter in a group that has been thinned and then replenished as the season has worn on.
For a team like St. Louis, sitting near the Wild Card line and trying to avoid paying premium prices for a short-term fix, that kind of profile is worth monitoring. Sandovals recent first start back was encouraging, and with his contract and injury history shaping how rival front offices view him, he fits the sort of affordable pitching addition that can linger on the deadline market even as bigger names dominate the conversation. [Read more 🡒]