Baseball’s trade market is rarely a straight line - and the case of Jarren Duran is a perfect example of why.
While the headlines scream about Kyle Tucker landing a $60 million-per-year deal with the Dodgers, there’s a quieter story brewing in Boston. Over the last three seasons, Duran has actually posted a higher Wins Above Replacement (WAR) than Tucker - 15.5 to 14.8.
That’s not a typo. And yet, the buzz around Duran on the trade block isn’t anywhere near the level of Tucker’s free-agent frenzy.
So what gives?
This is where the nuance of player valuation really comes into play. WAR is a great tool - one of the best we have - but it doesn’t tell the whole story.
Teams look beyond the stat sheet. Contract status, perceived upside, positional fit, injury history, and even marketability all factor into how front offices assess value.
And while Duran’s WAR might be higher, Tucker’s profile as a power-hitting, left-handed corner outfielder with postseason pedigree makes him a top-tier commodity in the eyes of many execs.
Still, that doesn’t mean Duran is flying under the radar. If anything, Tucker’s massive deal might actually be boosting Duran’s trade value by thinning out the outfield market. With one marquee name off the board, and Cody Bellinger the only big bat left in free agency, Duran becomes one of the more attractive fallback options - if you can even call him that.
He’s not just a consolation prize. At 29 years old, Duran is only four months older than Tucker and has been a dynamic presence for the Red Sox.
His blend of speed, defense, and improving offensive production gives him plenty of appeal to teams looking for a spark in center or left field. And with multiple clubs still hunting for outfield help, Boston may find itself in a strong negotiating position.
The Red Sox have been patient with Duran. Whether that’s been by design or simply due to a lack of compelling offers, the timing may now be working in their favor. With fewer high-end outfielders available and Duran’s value on the rise, Boston could be poised to cash in - big.
If the trade happens, don’t be surprised if the return is significant. Duran’s numbers speak for themselves, and the market is starting to catch up.