The Red Sox still haven’t officially locked up a postseason berth, but everything is pointing toward a Wild Card Series rematch at Yankee Stadium. And this time, Boston has a much better pitching problem than it did in last year’s playoff trip to New York.
Back then, Garrett Crochet delivered in Game 1, but Brayan Bello and an inexperienced Connelly Early couldn’t finish the job in Games 2 and 3. This October, the rotation picture looks deeper and far more stable with Sonny Gray, Payton Tolle and Ranger Suarez all in the mix.
So who gets the ball first? That’s the debate.
Justin Leger’s ideal order has Gray starting Game 1, Tolle taking Game 2 and Suarez lined up for a decisive Game 3. Gray is the steady hand in that version of the bracket - not the flashiest choice, but the safest one for an atmosphere that should be loud from the first pitch. He’s gone 17-5 with a 2.76 ERA in 27 starts, tied for the MLB lead in wins and tied for seventh in quality starts with 18 after Crochet’s early-season injury pushed him into the de facto ace role.
Gray also brings experience at Yankee Stadium, for better and worse. He’s had rough outings there over his 14-year career, including during his short run with the Yankees, but he was strong there earlier this season, allowing three earned runs over 6.1 innings in a 5-3 win.
At Fenway against New York, he took a no-hitter into the eighth inning. The matchup still looks uphill, especially with Cy Young frontrunner Cam Schlittler set to deal for the Yankees, but Gray gives Boston its best chance to steal Game 1 and keep the rest of the series manageable.
Leger’s Game 2 choice is Tolle, though he says he wouldn’t object if the rookie got the opener instead. Tolle’s lone Yankee Stadium experience is that 0.1-inning appearance in last year’s Wild Card Series, but that’s not enough to scare anyone off. He handled the Yankees well twice at Fenway this season: one run on three hits over six innings in April, then a seven-inning gem in June in which he carried a perfect game into the sixth and allowed just one hit with no runs.
Suarez fits Game 3 in Leger’s view because of what he’s done in October before. He has a 1.48 ERA in 11 career postseason appearances, eight of them starts, with the Phillies.
After a second-half slump, he has started to look more like himself again, tossing seven shutout innings against the Baltimore Orioles on Sept. 4 and then allowing one run over seven innings while striking out eight Kansas City Royals on Saturday. If he’s needed in a winner-take-all spot, Boston can also lean on a strong bullpen, with Bello working as a bulk option, Jake Bennett as a possible weapon and Crochet potentially available if he’s back from injury.
Mitchael Hurley sees it differently and would put Tolle in Game 1. His case isn’t about spreadsheets as much as feel: Tolle, in his view, is the heartbeat of the club, and the Red Sox need the most energy they can get in a series like this.
He points to the way Tolle has handled pressure all year, including an immaculate inning in the first inning on a rainy Sunday four hours after the original first pitch time, as proof that the moment won’t be too big for him. Hurley says the Yankees have struggled against him this season, but even without that, Tolle would still be his opening choice.
Hurley slots Gray into Game 2, noting that in a different year the 36-year-old might be in position for his first Cy Young Award. Instead, Schlittler’s season has changed that conversation.
Gray has been excellent overall, but Hurley does have one concern: in his lone start at Yankee Stadium this season, he allowed two homers, and he’s given up 22 home runs in 23 career appearances there. Still, Gray has been strong all season and down the stretch, and Boston should be able to give him the proper rest.
For Game 3, Hurley also wants Suarez. He points out that it would look rough if Boston lost in two games and never used the pitcher carrying that 1.48 postseason ERA, even if Tolle and Gray have been good enough to make that a tolerable outcome.
He also notes Suarez was hit hard in the Bronx on Aug. 30, when he allowed six earned runs in 5.1 innings, though he was effective at Yankee Stadium earlier in the year with one run allowed over six innings. Compared with last season, when the Red Sox had to send Early out for Game 3 in his fifth career start, Boston would be in far better shape if Suarez is the one left to pitch a deciding game.
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