The Red Sox have turned a mid-June question mark into one of baseball’s most surprising July stories, but that doesn’t automatically take Sonny Gray off the trade block.
Boston’s 15-game winning streak changed the conversation fast. A club that looked like a clear deadline seller has pushed itself into buyer territory, and that shift has already altered the market around players such as Gray and Aroldis Chapman. Still, Gray remains the name to watch if the Red Sox decide to play both sides of the deadline.
Gray has been Boston’s most reliable starter all season. He owns a 2.48 ERA, which ranks fourth in MLB, along with a 1.12 WHIP, 90 strikeouts and 28 walks across 101.2 innings. Those numbers make him one of the most attractive arms available, especially in a deadline landscape that may not offer many comparable options.
That shortage matters. The American League standings are crowded enough that there are not many obvious sellers, and one of the best possible trade chips, Tarik Skubal, may never actually hit the market.
The Detroit Tigers were expected to be in that position after their rough start, but they’ve won nine of their last 12 and were 4.5 games back of the third Wild Card spot as of July 21. Even Jeff Passan gave Skubal only a 60 percent chance to be traded in his latest deadline rumor update.
If Skubal stays put, the teams hunting for impact pitching - clubs like the Atlanta Braves and Chicago Cubs - will have fewer premium choices. That’s where Gray’s appeal spikes. He’s on a one-year deal, he turns 37 in November, and the odds of Boston extending him are slim to none, especially with the 2027 season under threat of a strike or lockout because of looming collective bargaining agreement talks.
That kind of setup can drive a massive return. The Red Sox could potentially get a haul of prospects, and maybe even some big leaguers, if they made Gray available. And with Boston’s offense having been “horrendous and unwatchable” just one month ago, there’s still a case for Craig Breslow to think about the future instead of going all-in.
Gray also has control over where this goes. His no-trade clause means he would have to approve any deal, and in June he said he was "open for a conversation" about waiving it. Whether that feeling still holds after Boston’s surge is another question.
For now, the Red Sox still need to keep stacking wins if they want to justify buying before August 3. Matchups with the Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers are still ahead, and if Boston slips even a little, the calculus could change quickly. In a market this thin, Gray could go from possible hold to the centerpiece of a huge deadline return in a hurry.
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