The Red Sox still haven’t locked up their playoff spot, but the conversation in Boston is already shifting to the one decision that could shape a Wild Card series: who gets the ball in Game 1.
Sonny Gray has looked like the obvious answer for most of the year. He’s been Boston’s ace, he’s piled up 17 wins, and he’s put together a season that’s hard to argue with: a 2.82 ERA and a 146-to-45 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 163 innings. Even in a rougher stretch since Aug. 15, he’s still posted a 2.89 ERA with a 3-2 record.
But Gray may not be the name Boston is leaning toward after all.
On Saturday, Rob Bradford of WEEI reported on X that Payton Tolle has a “good shot” to start Game 1, noting, “It sure looking like Tolle has a good shot at pitching Game 1 the way they are lining things up.” That would be a notable turn, especially with Ranger Suárez also in the mix after surging at the right time.
Suárez has been excellent since Sept. 4, going 3-0 with a 0.92 ERA. He was brought in for exactly this kind of stretch, given his playoff track record and the way he’s been pitching lately.
Tolle, though, has made a real case of his own. Since Aug. 13, he has a 2.50 ERA with a 42-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 36 innings over six starts.
The matchup history against New York gives Tolle another boost. He has started twice against the Yankees this season and allowed just one run in 13 innings, good for a 0.69 ERA, while striking out 18.
Gray has also handled New York well, giving up three runs in 13 2/3 innings for a 1.98 ERA with 12 strikeouts. Suárez’s numbers against the Yankees are the shakier part of the picture: three starts, 11 runs allowed in 16 1/3 innings, a 5.94 ERA.
That’s why the idea of Tolle in Game 1 is starting to make real sense. In a three-game series, Boston could go with Tolle, then Gray in Game 2, and Suárez in Game 3 if it’s needed. All three are rolling right now, but Tolle’s form and his success against New York may be enough to put him in front.
In Other News...
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Red Sox Waste A Winnable Bello Start In Brutal Loss
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Garrett Whitlock then absorbed the loss when he allowed the winning run in the ninth, sending the Rays to a 2-1 walk-off win and evening the series at one game apiece. For a club that had a quality outing from its starter and enough traffic on the bases to change the night, the frustration was as much about what slipped away as the final score itself. [Read more 🡒]
Red Sox Suddenly Face A Late-Season Speed Problem
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Braiden Wards name has started to come up as a possible call-up, which gives Boston at least one internal answer to consider if it wants more speed and athleticism on the bench. For a team that values flexibility, Whites injury leaves the Red Sox in a familiar spot at this time of year: weighing whether a minor roster shuffle can cover for a bigger loss, and whether the next move has to come from inside the organization. [Read more 🡒]