Aroldis Chapman looked like a likely trade chip not long ago. Now, the Boston Red Sox have played their way into a completely different conversation.
Boston has gone from 14 games under .500 to above .500, and the turnaround has been dramatic enough to change the deadline math around the club. The Red Sox have won 12 straight and 17 of their last 19, and that surge has made it harder to imagine them dealing away one of their biggest bullpen weapons.
MLB Network’s Jon Morosi wrote Friday that a Chapman move is “increasingly unlikely” to happen this summer. He pointed to FanGraphs giving Boston a 40.1 percent chance of reaching the postseason at the start of the second half, and then added, “An Aroldis Chapman trade is increasingly unlikely to happen at all.”
That was before Boston took the first three games of a four-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays. After that run, the Red Sox’s playoff odds climbed to 53.4 percent, and they now sit as one of just six American League teams at .500 or better.
The shift is notable because the trade talk around Chapman was once loud. ESPN’s Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel had given him a 90 percent chance of being moved. That no longer looks like the direction this is heading.
Chapman has been excellent for Boston this season, posting a 2.05 ERA with 21 saves in 32 appearances. He has also thrown 30 2/3 innings. Once he reaches 40 innings, his 2027 option will become guaranteed, provided he passes a physical at season’s end.
For a team that was expected to be selling a few weeks ago, the picture has changed fast. Instead of moving Chapman, Boston may now be better served keeping him and adding around him as the trade deadline approaches.
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Rosarios development matters because catching prospects can change an organizations outlook fast if the hit tool starts to catch up with the defense. For Boston, that is the real intrigue here: a player who has long been viewed through the lens of projection is suddenly giving evaluators a reason to wonder whether the offensive progress is real, and whether it might be arriving sooner than expected. [Read more 🡒]