The Boston Red Sox have put themselves in a strong spot with two weeks left in the regular season, but the exact shape of their October still has plenty to settle.
Boston wrapped up its final long homestand Sunday with a 4-1 win over the Kansas City Royals, taking the last two games of the series. That pushed the Red Sox to 82-68, 14 games over .500 and firmly in the postseason picture.
The numbers make the big picture pretty clear. ESPN’s playoff projections give Boston a 99.9% chance to make the postseason, so the question is no longer whether the Red Sox will be there. It’s where they’ll land.
Right now, Boston sits in third place in the American League East. The Tampa Bay Rays lead the division at 90-59, putting the Red Sox 8 1/2 games back. The New York Yankees are 86-63, which leaves Boston 4 1/2 games behind them.
That places New York in the first AL wild card and Boston in the second.
The Red Sox’s most immediate chase is the pack behind them, especially the teams battling for the final spots out of the AL Central. The Chicago White Sox lead that division at 76-73, with the Cleveland Guardians just a half-game back at 76-74. The Toronto Blue Jays are still hanging around at 75-75, and the Texas Rangers, who will host Boston’s next three games, are 74-76.
Boston holds a six-game edge over Cleveland and a seven-game cushion over Toronto. That’s a healthy buffer with 12 games left, though not enough to take anything for granted just yet.
If the Red Sox finish with the second wild card, they’d likely head on the road for a best-of-three series against the Yankees. If they can climb past New York, they’d get to host that series at Fenway Park.
The next six games will go a long way toward sorting all of that out.
Boston opens its road trip Tuesday night in Texas, where the Rangers are still trying to stay alive in the playoff chase. Patrick Sandoval is set to face Cody Bradford in the opener, with Jake Bennett matched up against Jacob deGrom on Wednesday. Sonny Gray and Kumar Rocker are expected to start the finale on Thursday.
After that, the Red Sox head to Tampa Bay for three games against the team with the best record in the American League. That’s the toughest stretch left on the schedule, and Tampa Bay has been especially difficult to beat at home, going 50-25 in its own park.
Boston has been good away from Fenway, though, putting together a 44-31 road record. That gives this trip real weight: it could decide whether the Red Sox spend the last week trying to catch the Yankees or just trying to protect their place.
The final homestand begins after a day off on Monday, Sept. 21, with three games against Cleveland. That series carries obvious playoff importance, since the Guardians are not only in the AL Central race but also in the mix as one of Boston’s closest wild-card challengers. The Red Sox will then close the regular season with three games against the Chicago Cubs.
Here’s the rest of Boston’s schedule, all times ET:
Tuesday, Sept. 15 at Texas, 8:05 p.m.
Wednesday, Sept. 16 at Texas, 8:05 p.m.
Friday, Sept. 18 at Tampa Bay, 7:10 p.m.
Saturday, Sept. 19 at Tampa Bay, 4:10 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 20 at Tampa Bay, 1:40 p.m.
Tuesday, Sept. 22 vs. Cleveland, 6:45 p.m.
Wednesday, Sept. 23 vs. Cleveland, 7 p.m.
Thursday, Sept. 24 vs. Cleveland, 6:45 p.m.
Friday, Sept. 25 vs. Chicago Cubs, 7:10 p.m.
Saturday, Sept. 26 vs. Chicago Cubs, 7:15 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 27 vs. Chicago Cubs, 3:05 p.m.
Boston has won seven of its last 10 and owns a plus-88 run differential, which is the third-best mark in the American League. The Red Sox are in position now, but they’re still chasing something meaningful.
Catching the Yankees would require Boston to stay hot and get help elsewhere. Even if that gap holds, keeping the second wild card would still matter, because it would keep the Red Sox away from a tougher matchup against a division winner.
For now, Boston controls most of what’s in front of it. A strong trip could wipe away almost all of the remaining uncertainty and turn the final six games at Fenway into a chance to improve the road ahead, rather than a scramble to survive.
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