The Red Sox are already boxed in before the 2026-27 offseason even gets rolling.
Boston enters the winter with the sixth-highest guaranteed contract total in baseball, and that’s before free agency opens or any roster churn begins. For a team still trying to break through beyond the Wild Card round, the financial picture is already tight - especially with the club pushed up against the second luxury tax threshold, if that remains part of the next Collective Bargaining Agreement.
The raw number is the eye-opener. Spotrac puts the Red Sox luxury tax payroll at $299.08 million before the offseason starts.
The club’s total salary commitments come to $239.49 million, and once player benefits, minor league salaries and other items are included, the bill climbs fast. Boston still has more than $170 million in guaranteed contracts on the books.
That’s the core issue: there isn’t much room to breathe, even before any new additions.
Here’s how the money stacks up by position, based on Spotrac’s figures.
Catcher is set at $12.3 million, led by Adley Rutschman in his final year of arbitration. Spotrac projects him at $8.5 million, with MLB Trade Rumors pegging him at $9.1 million.
Connor Wong, entering his second arbitration year, is projected for $1.8 million by Spotrac and $2 million by MLBTR. Mickey Gaspar and Anthony Seigler are both pre-arbitration players at $1 million apiece.
First base comes in at $18.86 million, almost all of it tied to Willson Contreras and his $17.25 million AAV in 2027. Tristan Casas accounts for the rest, with Spotrac projecting him at $1.61 million.
Second base is one of the clearest examples of how AAV can sting a payroll. Kristian Campbell’s deal carries a $7.5 million AAV even while he’s in the minors, and that number counts against the luxury tax. Romy Gonzalez is projected at $1.6 million in his second arbitration year, while Nick Sogard sits at $1 million in pre-arb.
Third base is the cheapest in the group at $3 million. Caleb Durbin, Curtis Mead and Nate Eaton are all pre-arbitration players, each projected at $1 million.
Shortstop totals $26.08 million, driven almost entirely by Trevor Story’s $23.33 million AAV. Anduw Monasterio is projected at $1.75 million in his first arbitration season, while Tsung-Che Cheng is at $1 million.
The outfield is where the number jumps sharply, landing at $60.55 million. Masataka Yoshida is in the final year of his deal at an $18 million AAV, and Roman Anthony carries a $16.25 million AAV through the eight guaranteed years of his contract.
His 2027 salary is only $4.625 million, but the structure of the deal pushes the AAV much higher now, with savings coming later. Ceddanne Rafaela is also on a guaranteed contract, with a $6.25 million AAV.
Boston’s other four outfielders are all in arbitration. Jarren Duran is projected at $10.5 million in his third arbitration year, with MLBTR at $11.1 million.
Wilyer Abreu is at $5.8 million in his first year. Eli White projects to $2.75 million in his second arbitration season.
Jahmai Jones is in his first arbitration year at $1 million.
Starting pitching totals $63.23 million, and the top of the list is heavy. Garrett Crochet’s AAV is $28.33 million, while Ranger Suarez sits at $26 million.
Tanner Houck is projected at $4.15 million in his final arbitration year, and Kutter Crawford is at $2.75 million in his third of four arbitration seasons. Payton Tolle and Jake Bennett are both pre-arbitration players at $1 million each.
Sonny Gray’s $30 million mutual option is not included, since it is highly unlikely to be exercised.
The bullpen is expensive too, checking in at $45.37 million. Aroldis Chapman leads the group at $13.3 million after his option vested.
Brayan Bello’s long-term deal carries a roughly $9.17 million AAV. Garrett Whitlock’s team option at $8.25 million needs to be picked up, and there’s no reason it shouldn’t be.
Boston also has six relievers in arbitration. Johan Oviedo is in his final arbitration year, projected at $1.55 million.
Greg Weissert is projected at $1.75 million. Erik Miller is at $1.35 million.
Tyron Guerrero earned Super Two status, giving him four arbitration years, and he’s projected at $1 million. Justin Slaten is also projected at $1 million, and Zack Kelly comes in at $1 million as well.
Then there are seven more relievers on the 40-man roster in pre-arbitration, all projected at $1 million: Raymond Burgos, Eduardo Rivera, Tyler Samaniego, Wyatt Olds, Jedixon Paez, Alec Gamboa and Jovani Moran.
It all leaves Boston staring at an offseason that will require serious maneuvering if the club wants room to add without pushing costs even higher. Some players could be non-tendered.
Trades could clear salary in a hurry. And because players who spend time in the minors don’t collect their full MLB salaries, the final luxury tax hit can shift during the season.
Even so, the Red Sox are already carrying a massive financial load before the winter activity even begins.
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