The Red Sox may spend this winter the way they have in other CBA years: carefully, and maybe not much at all on the free-agent side.
With the current Collective Bargaining Agreement set to expire on December 1, the league is heading toward an offseason that could be shorter, stranger and far less predictable than usual. Once that deadline hits, no signings or trades can happen until a new deal is in place. And with talk of a lockout already hanging over the winter, the real question is how much business teams will try to get done before the freeze arrives.
For Boston, history points toward caution. Alex Speier of The Boston Globe noted that after the 2007-11 CBA expired, the Red Sox steered clear of “major payroll commitments.” He also pointed out that when the next CBA ran out in 2016, Boston’s biggest moves came through trades, with the Chris Sale deal standing as its top acquisition that year.
That pattern matters because this offseason comes with a heavy dose of uncertainty. Owners have pushed for a salary cap, along with other sweeping changes, while ideas like altering the draft and international free agent signings are also in the mix. Speier emphasized that the uncertainty alone could be enough to make clubs hesitate before locking themselves into big free-agent deals.
Boston’s recent behavior fits that view. Outside of 2022, when the club signed Michael Wacha, Rich Hill and James Paxton, the Red Sox have generally avoided major free-agent spending in CBA negotiation years.
This year’s free-agent market may not exactly invite a splash, either. The 2026-27 class is described as thin, with Randy Arozarena, Seiya Suzuki and Brandon Lowe among the best hitters available. Put that together with Boston’s track record, and a loud pre-lockout spending spree feels unlikely.
If the Red Sox do make noise before the shutdown, trade talks may be the likelier route. That’s how they operated last season, when they added Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras and Caleb Durbin, all of whom became major contributors in 2026. It would also fit the club’s recent habit of leaning more on the trade market than on big-ticket free-agent shopping once a new CBA is in place.
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