The Boston Red Sox are heading into the offseason with a clear need on the mound, and one projection has them filling that hole with a familiar kind of gamble: a one-year deal for Casey Mize.
Tim Kelly of Bleacher Report recently forecast that Boston will land Mize for $14 million, a move that would slot him into the rotation after Sonny Gray hits free agency.
“Mize could replace Sonny Gray in Boston’s rotation on a one-year commitment. If he stays healthy and pitches well, he could be a qualifying-offer candidate next year,” Kelly wrote.
It’s the sort of signing that makes sense for a team looking for upside without locking itself into a long-term commitment. Mize has flashed real talent, but his track record also comes with the kind of volatility that keeps front offices cautious.
His 2026 season told that story in full. With Detroit, Mize was sharp, posting a 2.70 ERA in 16 appearances. After a trade to San Diego, though, things unraveled fast, and he finished with a 7.46 ERA in 10 games for the Padres.
Even with that uneven finish, there’s still a case for Boston taking the shot. Mize was an All-Star in 2025, when he went 14-6 with a 3.87 ERA in 28 games for Detroit. That version of him is exactly why a one-year bet could be appealing.
For a Red Sox club that needs more pitching, Mize fits the profile of a bounce-back candidate worth considering.
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