The Red Sox keep circling back to Jarren Duran, but the market around him has clearly shifted. Boston can still shop him, sure, yet the kind of return the front office may be hoping for looks a lot harder to find now than it did a year ago.
That’s the crux of the issue, and an anonymous National League executive put it bluntly to The Boston Globe’s Tim Healey: "It’s almost like [the Red Sox are] chasing the ghosts of 2024" when it comes to Duran.
Healey laid out the three paths Boston has with Duran: non-tender him and get nothing back, tender him and trade him, or tender him and keep him. The middle route is the one most observers expect, but it only works if the Red Sox accept what Duran is worth now, not what he was worth when his stock was soaring.
At his peak right after the 2024 All-Star season, Duran was 28 and had just finished eighth in American League MVP voting. Now he’s 30, and he’s coming off two straight disappointing seasons. He no longer looks like a centerpiece for a contender, and he’s not young enough to be sold as a major upside swing for a rebuilding club.
Boston has reportedly had multiple chances over the last couple of years to take advantage of the San Diego Padres’ interest in Duran. If that door is still open, the price on the other side of it has almost certainly changed for the worse from the Red Sox’ perspective.
If the Red Sox decide they want to move him, they may have to live with a return that doesn’t feel especially satisfying. Keeping him would cost more than it did last year, too. MLB Trade Rumors projects Duran at $11.1 million in arbitration, up from $7.7 million last year.
The Red Sox were also reportedly trying to use Duran in a package to land a frontline starter at the deadline, and that effort didn’t go anywhere. That’s the reality Boston has to deal with now: the rest of the league does not seem to value Duran the way the Red Sox once did.
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Among the names in the mix are free agent starters Shane Bieber, Michael King and Nick Pivetta, each of whom would give Boston another arm with a track record worth considering. The Red Sox do not need just one splashy addition here, either, since the bigger goal is to build a deeper, sturdier group that can absorb the inevitable bumps of a long year. [Read more 🡒]