Sonny Gray’s future with the Red Sox is already hanging in the balance, and the money on his next contract is starting to look like the real tug-of-war.
Boston had Gray in the rotation in 2026, but there’s no certainty he’ll be back in 2027. He has a $30 million mutual option, and the expectation is that it gets declined one way or another.
That leaves two paths: Gray hits the open market looking for a multi-year payday, or the Red Sox chase a cheaper arrangement. Either way, that option is almost certainly not staying in place.
Once Gray gets to free agency, the size of the contract becomes the headline. MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo reported that some in the industry think Gray could land around $75 million over three years. Spotrac’s projection, though, comes in well below that at just over $58 million over three years.
That number feels light.
Gray is 36, and age is the one obvious drawback. But 2026 didn’t look like a season where his game slipped.
He posted a 2.72 ERA over 169 innings and led the league with 18 wins. At an annual average of $19.3 million on a three-year deal, he’d be below pitchers like Yusei Kikuchi, Luis Castillo, Seth Lugo and Luis Severino, among others, while sitting around the range of Jose Berrios and just ahead of Chris Bassitt.
The comparison to Bassitt stands out even more when you line up the results. Bassitt is 37 and turned in a 4.59 ERA in 20 appearances for the Baltimore Orioles in 2026. The year before, he had a 3.96 ERA in 32 appearances.
Gray’s 2026 numbers, along with the advanced metrics, didn’t point to a decline. So while a three-year deal for a pitcher who will turn 37 in November comes with some obvious risk, the projected price looks too modest. Cotillo’s reported range feels more in line with where Gray should wind up this winter.
He earned that kind of contract, whether it comes from Boston or somewhere else. And if the number stays closer to Spotrac’s projection, the Red Sox ought to at least consider it.
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