The Red Sox have spent most of the season trying to put themselves in a position where the final stretch would matter. Now they’re there.
Boston enters its last 15 regular-season games at 80-67, coming off a two-of-three loss to the Angels at Fenway Park that interrupted the momentum from a five-game winning streak. The setback stung, but it didn’t knock the Red Sox out of a strong postseason spot. They’re sitting in the American League’s second wild-card position, four games behind the Yankees for the top wild card and six games ahead of the Guardians, who hold the third and final playoff berth entering Thursday.
That’s a good place to be. It’s also close enough to the edge that every remaining series can still tilt the whole picture.
Boston opens the home stretch with three games against the Royals at Fenway Park, and the pitching setup lines up well for the Red Sox. Sonny Gray gets the Friday opener at 6:10 p.m.
ET against Seth Lugo. Gray, who leads the majors with 17 wins, just fired seven scoreless innings in Boston’s 5-0 win over Baltimore.
He allowed three hits, struck out seven and gives the Red Sox the kind of steady start they badly need after the club gave up 12 runs over its final two games against Los Angeles.
Saturday brings Ranger Suárez against Randy Dobnak at 3:10 p.m. ET. Suárez is coming off seven scoreless innings of his own, holding Baltimore to five hits and one walk in a 1-0 win while using just 91 pitches to get through the outing.
Sunday’s 12:35 p.m. ET finale features Payton Tolle and Noah Cameron, and Tolle might be the most eye-catching arm of the bunch.
The rookie struck out 12 without walking a batter over six innings in his last start against Baltimore. He gave up four hits and one run while throwing 77% of his pitches for strikes.
Cameron has been sharp too, tossing six scoreless innings against the Diamondbacks in his most recent outing, allowing three hits and striking out seven.
The Royals come in at 65-82 and last in the AL Central, but Boston can’t treat this like a soft landing after what happened against an Angels team that is well out of the playoff race.
After Kansas City, the Red Sox have one last road trip before the season ends. They head to Texas for three games from Sept. 15-17, then move on to Tampa Bay from Sept.
18-20. The Rangers entered Thursday at 72-74 and were only 1 1/2 games behind Cleveland for the final wild-card spot, so those games could carry direct weight in the race around Boston.
The Rays series brings a different kind of pressure. Tampa Bay entered Thursday at 87-58, the best record in the American League, and held an eight-game lead over Boston in the AL East. Catching them looks like a long shot, but the three-game set still gives the Red Sox a chance to chip away and get a taste of the kind of atmosphere they’ll need in October.
Then comes the stretch that could define the month. Boston returns home for six games, starting with three against Cleveland from Sept.
22-24. That series could be the most important of the month, especially with the Guardians sitting just six games back entering Thursday.
The Red Sox have some breathing room, but Cleveland still has a real shot to shake up the wild-card standings in those three games.
The regular season closes with three games against the Cubs from Sept. 25-27.
Chicago entered Thursday at 81-66, one game ahead of Boston and holding the second National League wild-card spot. Nine of Boston’s final 15 games will be at Fenway, which would usually sound like an advantage, though the Red Sox have actually been better on the road this year.
They’re 36-36 at home and 44-31 away from Fenway.
The record says Boston belongs in this race, and the underlying numbers back that up. The Red Sox have scored 652 runs and allowed 570, good for a plus-82 run differential, the second-best mark in the American League behind only the Yankees’ plus-124. Their expected record based on runs scored and allowed is 82-65, which is two games better than where they actually sit.
The lineup has plenty of pop too. Willson Contreras leads Boston with 26 home runs, 79 RBIs and a .900 OPS.
Wilyer Abreu has 24 homers, 71 RBIs and an .802 OPS. Ceddanne Rafaela tops the team with a .282 average and 151 hits.
Roman Anthony’s return adds another threat after he hit a two-run homer in Wednesday’s 6-4 loss to Los Angeles, and Abreu also went deep in that game.
Boston’s path is simple enough to see from here: handle Kansas City, survive the road trip and keep Cleveland at arm’s length when the Guardians come to Fenway. The cushion is there. What the Red Sox do with it over these final 15 games will decide whether they cruise into October or make this a lot harder than it needs to be.
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