Red Sox Early Returns On Breslow Extensions Are Hard To Ignore

Craig Breslow's strategy of extending young talent for the Red Sox, inspired by the Braves' approach, has resulted in mixed outcomes, highlighting both the potential and the risks involved in committing early to promising players.

Craig Breslow has wasted little time locking up young Red Sox talent, and the results have come in all shapes and sizes. Since taking over as chief baseball officer, Boston has handed out five early extensions to Garrett Crochet, Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, Ceddanne Rafaela and Brayan Bello. Some have looked like bargains, some have been rocky, and a couple have already turned into real headaches.

When a team goes down the “sign ’em young” road, the upside is obvious. If the player stays healthy and keeps developing, the contract can look like a steal. But that’s the gamble, and Boston has already seen both sides of it.

At the bottom of the list is Kristian Campbell, who got an eight-year, $60 million extension less than a week after his 2025 major league debut. For a moment, it looked like Boston had found a bargain.

Campbell was hitting .301/.407/.495 through April 30, 2025, but the whole thing unraveled fast after that. By June 18, 2025, he was down to .223/.319/.345, and the Red Sox sent him to the minors after his defense at second base became a problem too.

He has stayed there since, working on his swing and making slow progress. Boston is still carrying a $7.5 million AAV for a player who hasn’t been back in the majors in well over a year.

Brayan Bello comes next, and he’s been harder to pin down. He was the first player Breslow extended, landing a six-year, $55 million deal in March 2024.

Bello had a 4.37 ERA over the two seasons before the contract, and he’s posted a 4.02 ERA in the three years since. He made 30 starts in 2024 for the first time, then appeared in 29 games the next season.

His 2026 season has been a strange one: a 9.12 ERA and 2.26 WHIP over his first five starts got him optioned, but when he returned as a reliever, he put up a 1.98 ERA and 1.01 WHIP out of the bullpen. He hasn’t become the “mini Pedro Martinez” some fans hoped for, but at a $9.167 million AAV, there’s still a path for this to end up as a good deal.

Roman Anthony checks in at No. 3, and the talent is still easy to see. The outfielder had been hyped for years before his debut, and the expectation has always been that he could become a star hitter.

Injuries have slowed that process. Since debuting on June 9, 2025, Anthony has played 126 games, including 25 after a strange hand injury that never healed and kept him from helping the Sox when they needed him most.

When he’s on the field, though, he looks the part. In his rookie season, he hit .292/.396/.463 with 18 doubles and eight home runs over 71 games before an oblique injury ended his year.

If that’s his baseline, the eight-year deal worth $16.25 million AAV is a strong one. The question is whether he can stay healthy long enough to make it fully pay off.

Garrett Crochet lands second, and his contract came with a massive asterisk from the start. Boston gave up four top prospects to get him in 2024, so the only way the trade made sense was if the Red Sox could extend him quickly.

Breslow got it done on March 31, 2025, with a six-year, $170 million agreement. The extension didn’t begin until 2026, and Crochet missed nearly all of that season because of two arm injuries.

Still, the ceiling is undeniable. In his first year with Boston, he posted a 2.59 ERA, 1.028 WHIP, 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings and a league-leading 255 strikeouts over 205.1 innings.

He finished second in the AL Cy Young race, behind Tarik Skubal. The first year of the deal didn’t go as planned, but if the rest of it looks anything like that first Red Sox season, Boston will be in good shape at less than $29 million AAV.

The best of the bunch so far is Ceddanne Rafaela. His defense made him stand out almost immediately after his debut, and Boston moved quickly to secure him with an eight-year, $55 million deal shortly after the start of the 2024 season.

At just $6.25 million AAV, it’s already looking like a bargain. Rafaela has won two Gold Glove Awards for his work in center field, and his bat has started to catch up to his glove.

In 2026, he hit .285/.321/.444 with 32 doubles, three triples and 16 home runs over 138 games, while piling up 154 hits - 18 more than the year before despite playing 18 fewer games. He remains a rare defensive weapon and has grown into one of Boston’s steadiest hitters.

He may not be the biggest star on the roster, but this is Breslow’s best extension by far.

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