The Red Sox came through the trade deadline without the kind of roster teardown plenty of people expected two months ago. Boston went from looking like a seller to playing its way into buyer mode, and that shift spared several players from being moved. But just because they made it through July doesn’t mean they’re safe when the offseason arrives.
A few names still look vulnerable once the winter market opens, and the reasons are different for each one. Some are headed toward free agency.
Others are getting squeezed by roster crowding, contract value, or both. The common thread is that Boston’s next round of decisions could be just as consequential as anything it considered at the deadline.
Sonny Gray is the cleanest example. The veteran right-hander is set to hit free agency at the end of the season if his mutual option isn’t picked up, and the source notes that those almost never are.
He’ll be 37 next year, but he’s also putting together a bounce-back year with a 2.65 ERA over 23 starts. His expected numbers support the production, too, which should put him in position to chase one more major payday.
Boston could try to keep him, but the fit isn’t obvious. The rotation already has serious depth, with Ranger Suarez, Payton Tolle, and Jake Bennett currently in the mix and expected back next year.
Garrett Crochet will return as well. That leaves Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Johan Oviedo, Brayan Bello, and any rookie promoted this season competing for what appears to be the fifth spot.
With payroll already sitting high, it’s tough to see the Red Sox spending the money needed to bring Gray back.
Jarren Duran is a messier case, and that’s what makes him so interesting. His offense has fallen to a career-worst level by a wide margin, and the off-field issues have become more visible. At the same time, he’s still under team control for two more seasons, which gives Boston an asset that isn’t easy to move anymore.
The problem is that the outfield picture is crowded again, and Duran’s struggles only make it harder to keep everyone. The Red Sox also added Eli White at the deadline, and he has two years of control after this season while offering backup outfield help.
That sets up an uncomfortable choice for Boston: a salary dump trade or a non-tender. Either way, it sounds like a bad outcome for the club.
Trevor Story is the longest shot of the three, but he’s not completely out of the conversation. The infield is getting packed for next season, with Caleb Durbin and Willson Contreras locked in at the corners.
In the middle, Story is part of a crowded group that also includes Franklin Arias, Curtis Mead, Andruw Monasterio, Nick Sogard, and Anthony Siegler. The source suggests Mead is likely to handle second base every day, which would leave the rest fighting over shortstop and bench roles.
Story’s health remains the big issue, since he still hasn’t made it through a full season. Arias now looks closer than expected a few months ago, and Monasterio has shown enough with the bat that he probably shouldn’t be out of the lineup much.
That makes Story’s place in the 2027 puzzle hard to see, especially when you factor in his production: if 2025 is removed, he has hit .226 with a .661 OPS for Boston. The obstacle is his $25 million salary next season, which makes a trade difficult and makes an outright release unlikely.
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