After a second straight early playoff exit, the Red Sox are already staring ahead to 2027, and the payroll picture is getting crowded fast. Boston has 17 players headed into salary arbitration, tied for the most in baseball, and that number alone gives the front office plenty to sort through.
A few of those names are first-timers, including Wilyer Abreu. Others are new to the organization, such as Eli White, Adley Rutschman and Andruw Monasterio, all of whom arrived this year and are now part of the arbitration pile.
The latest projections from MLB Trade Rumors point to a bigger internal bill than Boston may want to carry, though not every estimate looks equally likely to stick. The number that jumps off the page is Jarren Duran’s: $11.1 million. He’s entering his third year of arbitration and is under team control through free agency after the 2028 season.
That figure feels especially steep when set against Duran’s 2026 season. He and the Red Sox agreed to a $7.7 million deal before the year, but he didn’t come close to making that look light.
Duran hit .207/.266/.361 with 165 strikeouts in 157 games, the worst offensive year of his career. If Boston had reasons to think about moving him before, the projected salary only strengthens that case now.
Triston Casas is another arbitration number that could push the Red Sox toward a decision. MLBTR has him at $1.7 million, but that’s still more than Boston may be eager to pay for a player who missed the major leagues all season with abdominal and wrist injuries. Casas played only 89 games across 2024-25, and if the Red Sox can’t find a trade partner, non-tendering him would be on the table.
Adley Rutschman and Abreu sit next in line among the pricier projections, at $9.1 million and $4.6 million. Rutschman’s number fits because he plays a premium position and is just one year from free agency, though his bat will need to rebound for that estimate to feel fully justified.
There’s also a separate layer to his situation, since many Red Sox fans are hoping the team signs him to an extension, which could alter his 2027 pay. Abreu, meanwhile, is in his first arbitration year, but the projection tracks with a player who’s about to have three trophies in his cabinet after he wins his third Gold Glove.
The pitching side brings its own set of questions. Tanner Houck is projected at $4.1 million, Johan Oviedo at $1.8 million and Kutter Crawford at $2.8 million.
All three are coming off injury-marred stretches and would be getting only modest bumps from 2026. Crawford hasn’t appeared in the majors since 2024, Oviedo made one start before getting hurt and Houck threw one game before the Wild Card series.
Boston may not want to keep all three, especially if it can package those salaries and go after a better arm to help replace impending free agent Sonny Gray.
There’s also a cluster of relievers and bullpen depth expected to land near the million-dollar range. Zack Kelly is projected at $800 thousand, Greg Weissert at $1.2 million, Erik Miller at $1.5 million, Justin Slaten at $1.2 million and Tyron Guerrero at $1.1 million.
If Miller and Guerrero keep producing the way they did in the regular season, those numbers would be bargains for Boston. Kelly’s case is different; he spent most of 2026 in Triple-A and on the 60-day injured list, so his salary shouldn’t move much.
The depth-player group includes Eli White at $1.4 million, Romy Gonzalez at $1.8 million, Connor Wong at $2 million, Monasterio at $1.6 million and Jahmai Jones at $900 thousand. Those projections line up with their expected roles, with Wong and Gonzalez making the most sense as the highest-paid names in that tier because of Wong’s premium position and Gonzalez’s past major league success.
The bigger picture is simple: Boston has eight more arbitration-eligible players than it did a year ago, but that doesn’t mean it should keep them all. Duran and Casas look like clear overpays relative to recent production, and the Red Sox also don’t need Houck, Oviedo and Crawford stacked alongside Garrett Crochet, Payton Tolle, Ranger Suarez and Jake Bennett. One or two of those pitchers could be moved to create room for a right-handed starter at the front of the rotation.
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