The Red Sox may be heading toward a winter decision that would have sounded unthinkable not long ago: moving on from Jarren Duran.
The latest round of speculation came Monday, when USA Today’s Bob Nightengale laid out a list of trade possibilities and free-agent notes ahead of the General Manager Meetings. In his view, Duran’s future in Boston is trending in one direction.
“The Red Sox have talked about trading Duran for two years, but have always had a high asking price,” Nightengale wrote. “That price figures to drop after he was the second-worst qualifying hitter in baseball, slashing .207/.266/.361 last year.
They don’t want to pay a projected $11 million in salary arbitration for a player who may be a fourth outfielder, at best. He should be as good as gone.”
That projected arbitration number matters here. MLB Trade Rumors has Duran pegged for more than $11 million this winter, a sharp jump from $7.7 million in 2026. After he hit .207 in 151 games played, that kind of salary is a tough fit for a Red Sox roster that already has plenty of outfield depth.
Still, this isn’t a new conversation. Sean McAdam of MassLive.com reported that Boston will “no doubt” tender Duran a deal, which means a non-tender before the November deadline does not appear to be the path. But tendering him and trading him are two different things, and the trade chatter has been building for a while.
Alex Speier of The Boston Globe reported that the Red Sox will “explore” Duran’s market this winter, and McAdam also wrote that Boston is “widely expected” to shop him. Nightengale’s report simply adds another loud voice to a rumor that has been hanging over the club all offseason.
If Boston does end up dealing him, the return likely won’t be the kind of haul that once seemed possible. That’s the hard part of this story. Duran was viewed as a cornerstone piece not that long ago, and his 2024 season looked like the kind of year that can change a player’s entire trajectory.
He was worth 9.0 WAR in 2024 and ranked among the best players in baseball. Duran led the league with 48 doubles and 14 triples, and he added 21 home runs, 75 RBIs and 34 stolen bases while hitting .285/.342/.492. He was, for that stretch, as dynamic as anyone in the game.
The comparison to Pete Crow-Armstrong only underlines how strong that season was. Crow-Armstrong, who is widely expected to win the NL MVP Award this year, was a 9.8 WAR player in 2026. Duran was right there in the same neighborhood.
But the momentum didn’t last. He slipped in 2025, then things unraveled in 2026. Now the Red Sox are staring at a familiar front-office question: pay up, or cash out.
For now, the buzz around Duran keeps growing, and the possibility of a winter trade looks very real. If Boston does decide to cut ties, it would mark a sharp and disappointing turn for a player who once looked like part of the club’s future.
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