When the 2026 NFL season kicks off, every team technically starts with the same shot at Super Bowl LXI - 1 in 16, or 6.25 percent. But as we know, the league doesn’t deal in technicalities.
Talent, coaching, schedule, roster depth - all of it matters. And when you look at the New England Patriots heading into next season, there’s reason to believe their odds should be better than that.
They’ve got a 23-year-old quarterback in Drake Maye who just finished as the MVP runner-up. That’s not a fluke - that’s a signal.
Maye’s rapid development in his first full season as a starter turned heads across the league. And with Mike Vrabel - fresh off being named AP Coach of the Year - leading the way, the Patriots look like a team that’s found its footing again after years of post-Brady uncertainty.
Still, not everyone’s buying in just yet. One projection has the Patriots with only a five percent chance of making it to Super Bowl LXI - a full point below the baseline average. For comparison, the defending champion Seattle Seahawks were given a 30 percent shot to return to the big stage.
That’s a massive gap. And while no one’s handing out rings in February, it’s fair to question whether the Patriots are being overlooked - or whether there are real hurdles ahead that justify the skepticism.
Let’s start with the schedule. New England benefited from one of the softest slates in the league last year, and they took full advantage.
But that’s about to change - dramatically. In 2026, they’re set to face 11 teams that finished above .500, plus a Kansas City squad that, despite a 6-11 record, still has Patrick Mahomes and a championship pedigree.
By contrast, only three of their opponents in 2025 had winning records.
That’s a big jump in difficulty, and it’s a legitimate concern. Young quarterbacks often take a step back when the margin for error shrinks. And while Maye showed poise and playmaking ability beyond his years, he’ll now have to do it against tougher defenses, in tighter games, with less room to breathe.
Then there’s the roster. The Patriots’ offense still needs work.
The line could use upgrades, and Maye doesn’t yet have a true No. 1 target to lean on. That’s not to say they’re barren - far from it - but if they want to keep pace with the AFC’s elite, they’ll need to give their young quarterback more support.
And while they’ve got draft capital, they’ll be picking late in each round - a byproduct of their surprising success this past season. That makes it harder to land immediate-impact players, especially at premium positions. On top of that, they’re expected to hand out a hefty extension to star corner Christian Gonzalez, which could limit their flexibility in free agency.
None of this means the Patriots are doomed to regress. Vrabel brought energy and identity back to the franchise, and his fingerprints were all over their turnaround.
But sustaining success in the NFL is a different beast. Just ask the 2024 Commanders, who surprised everyone one year, only to stumble the next.
The Patriots are in a better position than they’ve been in years - they’ve got a quarterback, a coach, and a defense that can make plays. But they’re also entering a tougher schedule, with a roster that still has holes and a conference that doesn’t offer many easy outs.
So, is five percent too low? Maybe. But it’s also a reminder: the climb to the Super Bowl is steep, even for teams on the rise.