Halloween weekend brought another shake-up to ESPN’s FPI, and the biggest swings came with the kind of results that make the formula look both ruthless and a little bizarre. Iowa, USC, Washington, Boston College, UCF and Oklahoma all moved in very different directions after Week 9, with some teams getting a real boost and others taking a hard hit.
Iowa was one of the weekend’s clearest winners. After a rough loss to Minnesota, the Hawkeyes answered with a 30-0 shutout of Wisconsin.
That result likely sends the Badgers tumbling out of the AP top 25 and gets Iowa back in. The Hawkeyes are still carrying two losses, and their College Football Playoff chances sit at just 11%, but the jump puts them up to sixth in the Big Ten and points toward a strong bowl destination.
USC also made a big move, and this one came with a statement win. The Trojans beat Ohio State 30-18, a result that dropped the Buckeyes just one spot but lifted USC 10 places.
That’s a major swing for a team that had just been beaten 24-7 by Wisconsin and looked like it might be sliding. Instead, the Trojans get an open week before heading to Indiana, a team that suddenly looks vulnerable.
USC’s Playoff odds are only 18.7%, but games against Indiana and UCLA could still change that picture.
Washington didn’t produce the flashiest result, but the Huskies did enough to keep building. They edged Nebraska 17-10, and while they’re not in the Playoff conversation, the win pushed their chances of reaching six victories and bowl eligibility to 84.8%. The final stretch is still tricky, with Indiana coming to Seattle and Oregon waiting on the road to close the regular season.
Not every weekend brought good news. Boston College took the hardest fall among the ACC teams mentioned here, getting blasted by Duke 47-2.
That’s the kind of loss that leaves a mark. The Eagles are 4-4, but with Notre Dame and Miami still on the schedule, their odds of getting to six regular-season wins and a bowl are down to 11.4%.
UCF also had a rough Friday night. The Golden Knights were coming off an upset of No.
2 BYU, but Baylor snapped that momentum with a 41-9 win. Even so, the rest of the schedule gives UCF some breathing room.
None of the teams left on the slate has a winning record, and the Knights still have a 74.1% chance of getting to six wins.
Oklahoma’s loss may have been the most frustrating of the bunch in the SEC. The Sooners fell 42-25 at home to South Carolina, and FPI reacted by dropping them 11 spots.
South Carolina moved up one place, but Oklahoma’s path is getting tighter by the week. Three ranked teams remain on the schedule, along with road trips to Florida and Missouri, and even their 50.5% shot at six wins may be on the optimistic side.
In Other News...
Boston College Let Another Hockey East Game Slip Away
Boston College had enough offense to make Friday night feel like a step forward, but not enough finish to turn it into a needed Hockey East win at Kelley Rink. Alex Pelletier paced the Eagles with a goal and two assists, and Dean Letourneau and Jake Sondreal also found the net, giving BC a lineup that produced in spurts and kept the game tight against Northeastern.
Still, the Eagles came away with a 4-3 overtime loss, another reminder of how thin the margin has been early in the season. Northeastern got the decisive goal in the extra session to leave BC at 2-4-1 overall, and for a team trying to settle into a rhythm, dropping one that was there to be taken stings just a little more. [Read more 🡒]
Boston College Let Another Halloween Chance Slip Away
Boston College had enough offense to make a Halloween-night hockey game feel alive, with Alex Pelletier and Dean Letourneau both getting on the board and giving the Eagles chances to push past Northeastern. The matchup had the kind of edge youd expect from a rivalry game, with penalties and power plays shaping the flow and Boston College repeatedly trying to answer every Huskies surge.
But Northeastern kept finding the timely response, with goals from Jacob Mathieu and Amine Hajibi ultimately proving too much for the Eagles to overcome. Boston College had its moments and briefly tilted the game with pressure of its own, yet the Huskies managed to hold off each push and leave the Eagles with another October result they will not want to revisit. [Read more 🡒]
Boston College Just Delivered The ACC Result Fans Needed
Boston College womens soccer got the kind of ACC result that can steady a season, going on the road and taking down No. 12 Louisville, 2-1, at Dr. Mark & Cindy Lynn Stadium. Emily Mara put the Eagles in front early, striking in the third minute, and Nicollette Kiorpes later extended the advantage with a penalty kick in the second half as Boston College built the cushion it needed against one of the leagues tougher opponents.
Louisville did get a late penalty to make the finish uncomfortable, but the Eagles held firm and left with a win that matters well beyond one night in the standings. It also gives Boston College a much-needed boost in both its overall and ACC records, while adding a notable line to a resume that has been looking for a statement result against a nationally ranked team. [Read more 🡒]